ShrinkWrapped

The Singularity & the 12th Imam: Part IV

In The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil looked at the natural history of information processing and discovered that the rate of increase in the ability to manipulate information has a logarithmic slope; in other words, the rate of information processing ability increases at an exponential rate.  Furthermore, he suggested that within the next 30-40 years we will reach a time at which the pace of technological advance (the current embodiment of information processing) will become so rapid as to make further predictions impossible, a point which he called "The Singularity". 

Kevin Kelly, as part of an article critiquing certain aspects of Kurzweil's idea, described the Singularity in fairly accessible terms.  (Vinge refers to Verner Vinge, who originated the idea of an Artificial Intelligence Singularity):

In Vinge’s analysis, at some point not too far away, innovations in computer power would enable us to design computers more intelligent than we are, and these smarter computers could design computers yet smarter than themselves, and so on, the loop of computers-making-newer-computers accelerating very quickly towards unimaginable levels of intelligence. This progress in IQ and power, when graphed, generates a rising curve which appears to approach the straight up limit of infinity. In mathematical terms it resembles the singularity of a black hole, because, as Vinge announced, it will be impossible to know anything beyond this threshold. If we make an AI which in turn makes a greater AI, ad infinitum, then their future is unknowable to us, just as our lives have been unfathomable to a slug. So the singularity became a black hole, an impenetrable veil hiding our future from us.

In his response to Kelly's article, Kurzweil wrote a clarifying post and used the Internet to illustrate the concept of a "transformative technology":

Consider the Internet. When the Arpanet went from 10,000 nodes to 20,000 in one year, and then to 40,000 and then 80,000, it was of interest only to a few thousand scientists. When ten years later it went from 10 million nodes to 20 million, and then 40 million and 80 million, the appearance of this curve looks identical (especially when viewed on a log plot), but the consequences were profoundly more transformative. There is a point in the smooth exponential growth of these different aspects of information technology when they transform the world as we know it. [Emphasis mine-SW]

One of Kurzweil's great insights was that almost any information technology, when looked at over time, shows the same pattern of exponential growth, with minimal change until a threshold is hit, followed by explosive transformations. 

What does this have to do with Apocalyptic cults and irrational reactions to disruption fueled angst?

The Reavers of Islam

People recognize that when we try to communicate with each other, our tools of language and image are almost always inadequate to convey our full meaning, and at the same time, convey multiple meanings that we do not consciously intend.  The War on Terror, also known as the War on Isalmofascism, is being shaped by these meta-communications in ways that some of the main players seem not to recognize.

Yesterday,  Apollon Zamp guest blogged at Gates of Vienna, and in his post The Reavers' Jihad explicitly compared Islam to the marauders of the Firefly series.  The comparison may be an exaggeration, and may be based on a limited view of Islam, however it is a view that the proponents of Jihad have been assiduously advancing and in this our MSM have been complicit.  Here is Apollon Zamp's description of Reavers:

For those not familiar with the TV show “Firefly” and its subsequent film production, Serenity, the story line includes a savage breed of beings known as Reavers. Since the Firefly universe is set five hundred years in the future, one might — on a steady diet of Star Trek and other such sci-fi favorites — expect danger to come in the form of alien life. However, danger comes instead in the form of the Beast Within — the savage side of man’s nature that in civilized cultures is held in check by proper social conditioning, an instilled sense of morality, and regulation of the id by the superego.

Fast Forward: Part III

Iraq has been the central front in the war between Modern Civilization and totalitarian Islam since the United States and its coalition partners invaded.  The purpose of the invasion was primarily to destroy the regime of Saddam Hussein in order to change the dynamic in the Middle East, decrease the risk of Iraq expanding or recreating their WMD programs (the jury is still out on the whereabouts or existence of any Iraqi WMD but that is not germane to this issue at the moment, in any event), and present a third option to the world's Muslims, most of whom have lived their entire lives under authoritarian or totalitarian rule, either secular or theocratic in nature.  Democratizing Iraq was often posed as an after-thought, but it was and is a crucial aspect of the larger war against Islamofascism.

The  destruction of the dome of the Golden Mosque Samarra has been the latest and perhaps most effective, attempt yet to ignite civil war in Iraq.  Bill Roggio suggests that the next few days will be key.  In Looking for Signs of Civil War in Iraq, he offers a variety of guideposts by which to determine the likely direction of future events and concludes:

Iraq has yet to encounter any of the problems stated above. The Sunni led Iraqi Accordance Front has suspended talks to form a government, but have not withdrawn from the political process. The Iraqi Security Forces have taken appropriate measures and suspended all leaves, but there are no indications they are cooperating with militias or abetting the violence in any way. There have been both encouraging statements by the Shiite and Sunni leaders. There also have been some irresponsible statements from the politicians on all sides, but this can be understood as tensions are running high. The Shiites are devastated by the destruction of the Golden Mosque and the Sunnis are horrified at the retaliation attacks. What is critical is what is said and done by these politicians in the next few days and weeks.

The French Intifada: A Second Look

[I am digressing from my series on Narcissism, Disintegration, Suicidality & the Fall of the West (Introduction, Part I) although this post can be considered a more specific example of the phenonena I am describing in those posts; Part II is in preparation and will be posted on Monday.]

With the French Intifada slowly returning to the status quo ante, with "only" ~100 cars being torched every night, (HT: Atlas Shrugs) the question of root causes, the relative impact of Islam, poverty, and racism is worth a second look. 

There are those, primarily in the Blogosphere, who have been insistent that radical Islam is at the core of the recent unrest, while others, including most of the LSM (LameStreamMedia) and the French government, insists the riots have nothing at all to do with Islam, but rather are related to poverty and discrimination.  The distinction is important in terms of the immediate government response to the crisis, but in the longer term, it represents a distinction without a difference.  In other words, the intersection of the future psychological development of the youthful rioters will increasingly force the crisis toward a clash of Islam with liberal, secular democracy; an understanding of the psychological developmental steps from late adolescence to early adult hood will dictate the long term outcome and the signs are inauspicious.

The most important of the several developmental steps that are required to move from late adolescence into early adulthood is the surrender of the adolescent fantasy of omnipotentiality (the idea that all future outcomes are available), which requires the acceptance of realistic limitations that are in concordance with one's abilities, and the establishment and consolidation of a stable identity.   A stable adult identity includes such things as one's sexual orientation, the desire or lack of desire for marriage and children, one's occupational interests, ethnic identifications, and religious orientation.  In all these areas, the young residents of the banlieus of France are being channeled toward radical Islam.

Narcissism, Disintegration, Suicidality & the Fall of the West: Part I

Introduction

The first human being who hurled an insult instead of a stone was the founder of civilization. - Sigmund Freud

Narcissism and Drive Containment

The obvious first question to address is what is the connection between increased narcissism and the fall of civilization. After all, some of our most overt narcissists reside at the pinnacle of our society. We celebrate celebrity, fill our Senate with preening peacocks, pay six figure incomes to "star" university professors, and have no difficulty cheering for our favorite football players as they do their end zone dance; so, again, what is the connection?

Allow me a slight digression. The most crucial job for parents is to take an unformed little human baby, whose only experience of the world is to know himself as the center of the universe, and tame his instincts so that he can become a productive member of society. I focus primarily on the male because they tend to have more powerful drives or drive expressions, both libidinal and aggressive, and are more difficult to tame. Every infant demands instant gratification of all their needs. By adolescence, even the most intact families will often need help in controlling their teenager's burgeoning drives, and in order to make the transition into functioning adulthood, the young person will have needed to tame their drives, allow for and tolerate delayed gratification, and in the ideal case, to have sublimated their aggressive and sexual drives in the service of productive pursuits. Pathological narcissism interferes with the process of taming the instincts.

If the parents are emotionally unavailable or overtly neglectful or abusive, the children's need for nurturance is never adequately satisfied; they are forever in need of confirmation and admiration (emotional nurturing) from the environment. They require the environment to cater to their needs in order to make up for the missing nurturance they deserve (think of the word "entitlement"). On the other hand, infants who have the misfortune to have "perfect" parents, who attend to their every need and protect them from all hurts and disappointments, will never have the opportunity to develop ways to deal with the inevitable setbacks and disappointments of life. They are prone to become adults who have minimal resiliency in the face of reverses; as a result they constantly need the affirmation of the environment that protects their fragile self-esteem. In past posts, I have described the concept of the "good enough" mother, a concept from D. W. Winnicott which suggests we only need "good enough" parenting in order to develop into healthy adults. As a corollary, we also need our parents to be "bad enough" (HT: Robert Godwin), to allow us to find our way to dealing effectively with the vicissitudes of life. I will be pointing out in future posts how current trends in the Islamic world, in the West, and in the Islamic world within the West, tend to exacerbate the problem of insufficient emotional nurturing.

There is an extremely important implication of these parenting issues that forms the core of my argument.