Tom Barnett has posted his wish list for the new year. All of the points are interesting, but I found number 7 particularly fascinating:
The New Rules: A Wish List for the New Year
7) Israel finally pulls the trigger on Iran's nuclear program. Assassinations and cyber mischief aside, the Israelis would do the world a favor by pricking the uncertainty bubble and attacking Iran's nuclear installations, thereby buying themselves the couple of years of delayed weaponization they so clearly crave. Yes, the strikes would provoke some form of counterattack, but they would also make clear to the world -- and specifically Moscow and Beijing -- that Tehran's inevitable achievement of nuclear weapon status will in turn necessitate an externally imposed, top-down regional security architecture -- one that finally makes a stable two-state solution possible between Israel and Palestine.
I wonder what has changed his mind in terms of an Israeli strike on Iran and whether or not the calculus concerning such a strike has changed? I doubt Israel will attack Iran this year, primarily because they appear to believe that Stuxnet has delayed the Iranians by as much as 3 years. However, Israel lives in a part of the world where what you don't know can hurt you, so a truly informed opinion is a rare avis.
Read the whole thing; he has some excellent advice for Obama pertaining to making a break with the Bush foreign policy concerning our relationship with China.
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