Consider this a continuation of the last post, Zooming Out.
Here are some interesting charts from the Financial Times, courtesy of Tom Barnett. The first chart is truly remarkable; in an eye-blink the United States went from a non-existent contributor in a relatively minuscule global economy to an engine driving an exponentially growing economy:
Here is Tom Barnett's take on the charts:
First cool point from the charts above: the rise of the East is merely a resumption of history disrupted by the West's sudden embrace of industrialization and colonialization (the Great Divergence begin in the 19th century healed by the Great Convergence of the 21st century).
Good point raised: don't conflate China's rise with Asia's, because the latter's been rising - in sequence - for quite some time. So it's Japan's rise, followed by South Korea's and the other Tigers' rise, now followed by China's rise, to be followed long-term by India's rise (remember, it adds 300m workers through 2050 while China loses 100m).
Other cool point: Remember that all this shifting occurs in an expanding pie. Today the global economy is about $58T. By the time China catches the U.S. in GDP, we're talking a global GDP more in the $150T range. As the Chairman of the London Stock Exchange (Chris Gibson-Smith) puts it, "And if you can't find your place in a $150,000bn economy, well, shame on you."
A couple of points I would add:
The trend line of share of manufacturing production looks bad for us now, but in ten years, as local computer aided fabrication matures, this chart may well become unrecognizable.
The second point is more near term. The global economy grows in proportion to the establishment of agreed upon rules for international relations. When those rules have broken down in the past, because the final arbiter of the rule sets have abandoned (or been forced to abandon) their responsibilities, the results have been dangerous, sometimes catastrophically so. The United States has been the guarantor of freedom of navigation for global trade for almost a century. If we abandon that position, it does not appear that there can be anyone else who would be able to step into the breech. Resigning as sheriff does not mean that crime disappears.
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