The State of the Union in Millennial Times

Michael Ledeen is suggesting that the Democrats are misreading the zeitgeist:

The Real State of the Union: Fear.

This fear is extremely broad-based.  It is not limited to social class nor to domestic or foreign policies.  Banks are not lending, companies are not hiring, because they are afraid of what Obama will do next.  Both are afraid of onerous taxes, including new health care burdens, and the banks fear new regulations and the consequences of the recently declared war on evil bankers by the president.  Seniors are afraid they will be deprived of medical treatment.  Juniors are afraid they are going to be forced to buy health insurance they don’t think they need.  Across the board, Americans are afraid they’re not going to find work, and won’t be able to afford a house.  And, as the Massachusetts vote showed, Americans are worried about threats from abroad, worried about Iran, afraid of terrorist attacks, and afraid the Obama Administration doesn’t take all this seriously enough.  As Scott Brown put it, most Americans think our tax dollars should go to fighting terrorists, not to pay lawyers to defend terrorists.

Coincidentally, Richard Landes posted a copy of an interview he had with Daniel Kalder at Big Journalism.  The whole interview is well worth your time.  Richard Landes approaches the topic from a more historical and sociological point of view than my more narcissism-centric view; both angles are useful in understanding why apocalyptic movements arise and flare up, occasionally into full fledged conflagrations.:

Death Wish: Why Are We So In Love with the Apocalypse? Kalder’s Interview with me

Why is the pull of apocalyptic belief so strong?

Our love for the apocalypse is connected with our sense of our own importance. To live in apocalyptic expectation means that you are the chosen generation; that in your time the puzzle of existence will be solved. It appeals to our- by which I mean humanity’s- megalomania: we all want to believe we’re special, that God has given us a front row seat for the most important events in history.

But where does it come from?

The West is fundamentally an apocalyptic culture. It came with the first missionaries when they went north to convert the tribes in Europe. The old chronicles speak of ‘glad tidings’, which had to be news of Christ’s impending return. Do you know the French cartoon strip, Asterix and Obelix? Asterix had to drink the magic potion to become strong. Obelix fell into the cauldron when he was a baby, so he didn’t need to drink it. That’s the relationship between Western culture and apocalypse.

If apocalyptic fervor seems more intense now it’s because ever since the Industrial Revolution Western society has been built on the idea of constant change, and so we need to constantly be thinking about the future. Scenarios like the Millennium Bug or Global Warming thus have special appeal to secular minds because as they are situations we created ourselves, we think we can solve them.

Here is the key meme:

What are the dominant apocalyptic scenarios today?

The two most compelling contemporary secular apocalyptic prophecies of our time are Climate Change and Global Jihad. By secular I mean based on empirical evidence rather than heavenly visions and ancient texts. But still they follow the apocalyptic thread of destruction and rebirth and are ripe for transformation into millennial movements.

Global Jihad involves actors inspired by sacred texts, but the danger of what they can do is very real. It is unfolding in real time, thus we can see it, and make observations. And so I describe it as a secular apocalypse.

The secular Millennialists have disguised their own chiliasm behind a pseudo-scientific edifice.  They have a dogma involving the destruction of the planet but because they do not see themselves as religious fanatics, they do not recognize their own Millennialism as faith based.  At the same time, because of the intensely personal nature of their belief system (ie, its narcissistic investment) they fail to appreciate that religious fanatics are far more devoted than they are.  (Most AGW true believers want everyone else to help save the planet by making financial sacrifices; the fact that a devastated global economy would cause starvation in marginal far away places is immaterial.  The religious fanatics are much more direct in their desire to kill and die for their cause.)

Shabaab suicide bomber kills seven at Mogadishu medical clinic

A Shabaab suicide bomber killed seven people in an attack at a medical clinic used by African Union forces.

The suicide bomber detonated his vest while waiting in line to enter the Halane medical clinic at the Mogadishu airport, the headquarters for the African Union Mission in Somalia.

Shabaab, al Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia, took credit for the suicide attack, claiming African Union doctors and soldiers were among those killed.

"We killed some of the senior medical officers and soldiers in the mercenary base," Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mahamoud Rage told reporters. "It is part of our retaliation attack against the occupiers’ massacre of our people."

An African Union spokesman said that only Somalis were killed in the suicide attack. Eleven people, including three African Union soldiers, were wounded in the attack.

The last suicide attack carried out by Shabaab also targeted medical personnel. On Dec. 3, 2009, a suicide bomber, who was disguised as a woman, detonated his vest in the midst of a graduation ceremony for Somali medical students from Banadir University. The ministers of health, education, and higher education, along with two reporters from Shabelle and Al Arabia, nine medical students, and a well-known doctor, were killed in the blast. Scores more were wounded, including the sports minister.

Part of what gives terrorism its fearsome intensity is the fervor of its proponents.  In the Wets we have difficulty appreciating a faith that motivates suicide-murder and some fear that fighting back (not necessarily in kinetic ways but more importantly by upholding our values) will cause an increase in the numbers of committed enemies.  There is a perhaps Jungian Unconscious fear that the Millennialism that has so often plagued our race will explode into chaotic fire; the enemy desires the apocalypse, many int he west fear trying to fight back will trigger the apocalypse.

For those enamored of Millennialism, and I do believe we are living in Millennial times, (as per Richard Landes, years that end in 00 tend to foster Millennial fervor) there are already rumblings, louder by the day, that the next Middle East War is a misstep away:

Lebanon’s next war may also be Syria’s

Media reports in recent days have painted dire scenarios for what is, supposedly, the inevitable conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Of particular note are persistent indicators that the next round, if or when it comes, will very likely involve Syria as well.

For quite a while now, the official position in Israel has been that the next war in Lebanon would be waged against the Lebanese state, not just against Hezbollah. The Israelis have also been warning Damascus that they would not tolerate Syria’s passing on to Hezbollah weaponry that might alter the military balance of power, namely air defense systems.

On that point, two recent reports are of interest. The first, in the Qatari daily Al-Watan a couple of weeks ago, quoted Syrian sources as saying that “there is a strategic decision taken by Damascus not to allow Israel to defeat the resistance movements.” One might have been tempted to dismiss this as rhetorical bluster, but another news report only a few days later called for a somewhat different assessment.

Speaking to the Kuwaiti daily Al-Rai al-Aam, an unnamed American official sent a shot across Syria’s bow, telling the newspaper that should Syria deliver to Hezbollah anti-aircraft missiles, “a war would doubtlessly break out, and this time Israel would strike targets in Damascus.” The official added that the Syrians, according to intelligence reports, had allowed Hezbollah fighters to train on the SA-2 anti-aircraft (AA) system on Syrian soil. Those accusations were repeated last weekend by Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Daniel Ayalon, after his meeting with Michael Williams, the United Nation’s special coordinator for Lebanon.

 A War that spreads from Southern Lebanon to engulf all of Lebanon would likely spread to Syria as well.  Iran could not afford to see its client states decisively lose a War with Israel (which is why a "planned" war would wait until Iran has a nuclear bomb; an accidental or miscalculated war would be a different problem.)  War is more likely if the Millennialists in the Middle east believe they can win and/or that they have the tacit support of the international community, which includes the United States.  No American President could survive tilting far enough against Israel as to endanger its existence, but the perception of Obama as weak and anti-Israel (or tepidly pro-Israel) can only increase the likelihood of a tragic miscalculation in the Middle East, birthplace of so many Millennialist movements.

Whether and how Obama addresses these inchoate fears will be the test of his speech tonight.