The prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah is widely considered a terrible defeat for Israel and another great victory for Hezbollah, much as the summer war of 2006 is widely considered a victory for Hezbollah and a disastrous defeat for Israel. This opinion is shared almost universally across the board.
Paul Hinderaker expresses the predominant sentiment on the right:
As expected, the return of the murderer Kuntar was greeted in Lebanon with elation and celebration. Hezbollah and its Lebanese suporters plainly viewed the swap as a victory, and to a degree it was.
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I'm far from an expert on Lebanon. However, it seems to me that Israel's failure to defeat Hezbollah during the war two years ago shifted the balance of power in Lebanon to the point that leaders like Sinora and Jumblatt feel constrained to follow Hezbollah's line in matters like this one and many others. If so, and after today's spectacle, Pollak seems correct to question whether it makes sense for the U.S. to consider Lebanon an ally in any meaningful sense.
Meanwhile, the man who brought Israel both the botched war and the one-sided prisoner swap, the corrupt Ehud Olmert, remains in power in Israel.
Lazar, at the Augean Stables, summarized:
Prisoner Swap Bolsters Hizbullah, Endangers IDF Soldiers
The prisoner exchange has been completed, and Hizbullah has not missed the opportunity. They are proclaiming victory in the Second Lebanon War, since they carried out the initial ambush with the goal of kidnapping soldiers to gain the release of Samir Kuntar. The Hizbullah commander in Southern Lebanon, Nabil Kaouk, said,
“The signatures of Olmert and Peres on the swap means official confirmation of the defeat and failure of the July aggression in the face of the will of the resistance.”
This achievement is just what Hizbullah needed- facing domestic pressure after their violent clashes with pro-government forces, they now have justification for remaining an independent militia inside Lebanon.
Perhaps Naomi Ragen expressed it best, and inadvertently got to the heart of the matter, when she described the day as a Day of infamy:
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