The news is filled with ominous signs of impending conflict in the Middle East. Israel is carrying out its largest war exercises ever, a five day affair designed to test its response to an all out missile assault from its neighbors. As Stratfor summarizes (subscription only):
Tensions are on the rise between Israel, Syria and Hezbollah. Israel is hosting the largest civil defense exercise in its history, both Israeli and Syrian reserves reportedly have mobilized, and there are rumblings about an impending reprisal attack for the killing of top Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyah. Concerns across the region continue to mount that Israel is looking for an excuse to step into another war with the Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah, this time with more decisive results.
In addition, Iran, the patron of Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas, is ramping up its nuclear program:
Iran steps up nuclear activity
Iran has begun the installation of 6,000 advanced centrifuges in its Natanz uranium enrichment facility, according to state media reports quoting the president.
Israel is preparing for the worst and has apparently warned Syria and Lebanon that any attack from Hezbollah will be grounds for war and the Israeli response will not be limited to the Shia parts of Lebanon but will include all of Beirut and Damascus:
Jerusalem Post military reporter Yaakov Katz confirmed on Israel state television tonight [4/3/08] that IDF forces are on the highest possible level of alert in the north, in response to intelligence information that the Iranian-backed Syrian regime—supplemented by largescale army reserve call-ups reported in various Arab media outlets in London and elsewhere in recent days—have moved two armored brigades into the Lebanese Beeka Valley, where Hizbullah has its main military bases.
...
Speculation that a major conflict might be brewing grew after the Israeli security cabinet held a special meeting on Wednesday—usually only convened in times of heightened military tensions or activity—mainly to discuss the situation in the north. The cabinet then announced that authorities will begin distributing anti-gas mask and biological weapons kits to the general public in the coming days—adding to the growing sense of crisis.
Historically, no one has ever lost money betting on war in the Middle East, yet there may well be reason for more optimism than meets the eye.
Consider these items:
The Israeli Infrastructure Minister just committed an apparent major diplomatic faux pas:
JERUSALEM – Israel will "destroy" Iran if Tehran decided to launch a war against the Jewish state, Israeli Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer said today.
The unusually harsh warning from Ben-Eliezer, a former defense minister, was delivered as the official visited his ministry's war room, which took part today in a massive, nationwide, weeklong drill that is set to include simulated chemical missile attacks on central Israel.
The Iranians won't rush to attack Israel, because they understand the significance such action would have and are well aware of our strength," Ben-Eliezer told reporters. "However, Iran continues to aggravate the situation by supplying arms to Syria and Hezbollah, and we must deal with this."
Meanwhile, al Manar TV reports:
Barak Seeks to Reassure Syria Ahead of Exercise
"It is well known that he who seeks peace should prepare for war," said Barak. Preparedness for war, he said, meant the defense forces must be at their "maximal state of aptitude and capable of achieving a decisive and unambiguous victory in any military conflict."
On Thursday, the IDF passed a message to the Syrian military via UN forces in Syria that Israel had no offensive intentions but that if attacked it would respond forcefully.
In tribal cultures which depend on "Complementary Opposition", (Culture and Conflict in the Middle East, Philip Carl Salzman) friendship can be purchased when it is in the best interests of the seller:
Syria: U.S. can buy our loyalty
If the U.S. helps facilitate billions of dollars in business for Syria and builds up Damascus as the primary American ally in the Arab world in place of Saudi Arabia, the Syrians would be willing to discuss scaling back alliances with Iran and making peace with Israel, according to a senior Syrian official speaking to WND.
The official said Syria recently conveyed this message to numerous visiting foreign dignitaries, including U.S. congressmen and Turkish mediators.
He said Syria also demanded as a key condition for considering altering its alliances that the U.S. cease opposing Syrian influence in Lebanon.
Here's the best part of the article:
"We are ready to significantly and deeply reduce relations with our Iranian brothers if conditions are met," the official said.
He said Syria is willing to sign a treaty with Israel and come to some sort of accommodation regarding the strategic Golan Heights, mountainous territory looking down on Israeli population centers which Syria used twice to launch ground invasions into the Jewish state.
The official claimed the Golan was not "the biggest obstacle" in preventing a Syrian-American-Israeli agreement.
He claimed Syria would "not categorically reject the idea of leasing some sections of the Golan to Israel for up to 99 years."
Needless to say, the Alawite rulers of Syria see their best interest as being served by their survival. They have no interest in a suicidal war with Israel merely to support the Umma which sees them as heretics anyway. Solidifying their position in Syria and re-gaining some of the influence in Lebanon that has been lost could be the leverage necessary to engage them in a real Peace process (as opposed to the "Peace" process involving the Palestinians which will never eventuate in Peace as long as the Palestinians remain committed to war.)
And then there is this small item from last night's Jerusalem Post: [HT: LGF]
'Report on Sept. 6 strike to show Saddam transferred WMDs to Syria'
An upcoming joint US-Israel report on the September 6 IAF strike on a Syrian facility will claim that former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein transferred weapons of mass destruction to the country, Channel 2 stated Monday.
Furthermore, according to a report leaked to the TV channel, Syria has arrested 10 intelligence officials following the assassination of Hizbullah terror chief Imad Mughniyeh.
And the Dog Who Didn't Bark? With all this going on, where is the emergency session for the UN to reliably condemn Israel for its bellicose behavior? In th past, Israel has been condemned for much lass that threatening to destroy a neighbor. Where is the outrage from the editors of the New York Times; where is the outrage from Arab capitals throughout the Middle East? Where is the outrage from the Europeans, who have convinced themselves that Israel is the greatest threat to peace in the world and now might be expected to believ they have some proof of their allegation? Perhaps the game has actually changed; none of those dogs have barked.
Now for some speculation. I have long been of the opinion that Israeli forbearance of Hamas rocket attacks will end the moment an atrocity occurs; it is impossible to know what the threshold would be, but certainly, if an Israeli elementary school were hit and there were casualties, the Israelis would have no choice but to re-occupy Gaza. In so doing they would destroy Hamas, in ways they could not destroy Hezbollah, simply because they would have no choice. Gaza would be leveled, if necessary. Could it be that Arab fear of Iran and its proxies is increasing just as Israeli patience is running out? If so, the grounds for a deal could be in place behind the scenes. In effect, Syria would have to move away from Iran and cut its support for Hezbollah and Hamas. In return Israel would agree in principle to cede their claims to the Golan Heights and agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state, to be accomplished once the Palestinians meet their obligations to stop terror (and please note the stories emerging that Hamas and Fatah have agreed to stop firing missiles into Israel; the leaders of Hamas are thugs, but they are not fools and as with Syria, their primary interest, just barely edging out the murder of Jews, is their own survival.)
This scenario is, of course, wildly optimistic, and as I have already implied, those who act on the basis of optimism in the Middle East have traditionally been disappointed, yet the stakes for Israel have been raised by Iran's nuclear program. Terrorism of the Palestinian variety has never amounted to an existential threat while an Iranian nuclear weapon is an existential threat to Israel. As such, by communicating to various interested parties (certainly Syria, perhaps other neighbors) that a mass casualty attack on Israel, an existential assault if you will, will be responded to with a corresponding but much more significant existential assault on them, it may just be possible that those interested parties will decide that martyrdom for the cause of the Palestinians and to advance the interest of the Persian Shia would be less desirable than a Peace with the Jews, who for all their faults, have never attempted to destroy them.
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