There is a strange convergence taking place between history and fantasy that bodes ill for the near term. With the news coverage dominated by the horse race aspects of the primary season, and international affairs appearing to have quieted, the undercurrents are moving along out of sight and out of mind for most Americans. Unfortunately, despite the surge of hope in America, history has never really stopped and is likely to re-assert itself periodically.
When I talk about Millennialism, I am referring to a particular kind of "end of history" romantic Utopianism. Radical Islam's fantasy of re-establishing the Caliphate is just such an idea. The emotional aspect, essentially emotions replacing reason, comes from the belief that once the Caliphate is restored, history will end and Utopia will arrive. Human work, politics, governance, will end; after all, al Qaeda has no real program beyond re-establishing the Caliphate. Terrorism is simply their best means to that end. Once reason has been replaced by fantasy and emotion, terror can take on a life of its own, but for the Jihadis involved, once they push the button on their bomb vest, history ends to be replaced by 72 virgins in Paradise; their leaders, in an analogous trap, imagine that once they have achieved their goal of re-instating the Caliphate, their history will have come to an end and they will live in an earthly Paradise. Many, many people will die along the way, but that is all in the service of the fantasy.
The Shia Millenialists are somewhat more stark in their desires. For the Iranian Twelvers, the Apocalypse will enable the return of the 12th Imam who will usher in an earthly Paradise. In any event, once Paradise has arrived, history will once again have come to an end.
Millennial cults and movements arise periodically, often at times of great stress and change. It is unquestionably true that our current world is characterized by tremendous and accelerating change. Millennial movements often are based on a primitive denial ("stop the world, I want to get off") and are reactions against disorienting change. In my series on The Singularity & the 12th Imam, I suggested we are already feeling the effects of the acceleration of technology and that intense anxiety accompanies the disruptive change that technology brings:
In summary, we are now already within a time frame in which our rapidly accelerating technological development has engendered anxiety within the West which can and has increased the tendency to react irrationally to perceived and mis-perceived threats. In the same vein, our adversaries sense a future in which they face increasing humiliation and marginalization, and since they can never compete with the modern technological world, their only hope is to destroy the very structure that incites their rage and envy.
If Islamic Millennialism is an outgrowth of their existential anxiety, Obamamania is quite likely to be the paradigmatic expression of Western existential anxiety. Barack Obama is a quintessentially traditional liberal who has run a campaign based on images and emotion. He offers a reactionary liberal program (bigger government as a response to all domestic problems and quasi-pacifist isolationism for international affairs) but has run a campaign that does very little to highlight his programs, understanding that when and if he ever gets specific he can only lose support. The Media, enraptured by his aura, contribute to the construction of Obama as the personification of Change. He is spoken of by his followers in religious, and even Messianic, tones of awe. His programs are ignored because once he ascends on high, history will end; peace and bipartisanship will appear, our foreign interventions will end, we will be liked and loved again, and peace will spontaneously break out around the world.
There are only a couple of problems with this, starting with the obvious fact that history will not end once President Obama takes the oath of office. Further, his policies in terms of Iraq and Islamic Millennialism make the return of history not only more likely but more problematic. President Obama, despite his caveat that any retreat, excuse me withdrawal, from Iraq will be done responsibly, has successfully conveyed the message to his supporters and to our enemies in the Middle East, that his approach to the problem of radical Islam will be one of negotiation, ie appeasement, rather than confrontation. Please note that it does not matter whether or not you and I believe his policies are correct or misguided; our enemies will see him as more malleable, more amenable to negotiation, more sensitive to grievances, and more inclined to "soft power" responses to radical Islam and its discontents, than would be a President McCain. An Obama victory in November will be seen as a victory for radical Islam around the world.
An apparent digression here might be instructive. The recent declaration of independence of Kosovo has fallen off the front pages; even the Serbian reaction, which includes the burning of the American embassy, has been muted, yet unrest in a part of the world that was instrumental in triggering one of the great conflagrations of the last century should alarm everyone. Further, the introduction of an Islamic state in such a tinder box should alarm much more than it does. The idea seems to be fashionable in Europe that giving the Muslims what they want is the path to peace. It has not worked in the welfare states of Western Europe and is likely to embolden the more radical elements among the Kosovars. Carolyn Glick, who often errs on the side of pessimism, may well underestimate the problems of Kosovo in her article today:
Kosovo's US-backed declaration of independence is deeply troubling. By setting a precedent of legitimizing the secession of disaffected minorities, it weakens the long-term viability of multi-ethnic states. In so doing, it destabilizes the already stressed state-based international system.
States as diverse as Canada, Morocco, Spain, Georgia, Russia and China currently suffer problems with politicized minorities. They are deeply concerned by the Kosovo precedent. Even the US has latent sovereignty issues with its increasingly politicized Hispanic minority along its border with Mexico. It may one day experience a domestic backlash from its support for Kosovar independence from Serbia.
Setting aside its global implications, it is hard to see how Kosovo constitutes a viable state. Its forty percent unemployment is a function of the absence of proper economic and governing infrastructures.
In November 2007, a European Commission report detailed the Kosovo Liberation Army's failure to build functioning governing apparatuses. The report noted that "due to a lack of clear political will to fight corruption, and to insufficient legislative and implementing measures, corruption is still widespread… Civil servants are still vulnerable to political interference, corrupt practices and nepotism." Moreover, "Kosovo's public administration remains weak and inefficient."
The report continued, "The composition of the government anti-corruption council does not sufficiently guarantee its impartiality," and "little progress can be reported in the area of organized crime and combating of trafficking in human beings."
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The fledgling failed-state of Kosovo is a great boon for the global jihad. It is true that Kosovar Muslims by and large do not subscribe to radical Islam. But it is also true that they have allowed their territory to be used as bases for Al Qaida operations; that members of the ruling KLA have direct links to al Qaida; and that the Islamic world as a whole perceived Kosovo's fight for independence from Serbia as a jihad for Islamic domination of the disputed province.
According to a 2002 Wall Street Journal report, al Qaida began operating actively in Kosovo, and the rest of the Balkans in 1992. Osama bin Laden visited Albania in 1996 and 1997. He received a Bosnian passport from the Bosnian embassy in Austria in 1993. Acting on bin Laden's orders, in 1994 his deputy, Ayman Zawahiri set up training bases throughout the Balkans including a training center in Mitrovica, Kosovo. The Taliban and al Qaida set up drug trafficking operations in Kosovo to finance their operations in Afghanistan and beyond.
In 2006, John Gizzi reported in Human Events that the German intelligence service, BND confirmed that the 2005 bombings in Britain and the 2004 bombings in Spain were organized in Kosovo. Furthermore, "the man at the center of the provision of the explosives in both instances was an Albanian, operating mostly out of Kosovo…who is second ranking leader of the Kosovo Liberation Army, Niam Behzloulzi."
Then too, at its 1998 meeting in Pakistan, the Organization of the Islamic Conference declared that the Albanian separatists in Kosovo were fighting a jihad. The OIC called on the Muslim world to help "this fight for freedom on the occupied Muslim territories."
Carolyn Glick is concerned with the effects of Kosovo independence and the manner of its birth on the confrontation in the Middle East, but the effects will be more widespread. By inadvertently supporting the idea that terror works, that Jihad can succeed in its goals, whether intended or not, whether true or not, whether a manufactured view or not, the independence of Kosovo, the establishment of a Muslim state in the heart of Europe, can only be seen as a great victory for Jihad at a time when the Jihadis are being increasingly marginalized within the Ummah itself.
This shows a serious misunderstanding of the stakes in Iraq and the greater Middle East. Objections to Jihad by the Iraqis and the repudiation of the Jihadis in the recent Pakistani elections are significant setbacks for radical Islam. However, the reason for the rejection of al Qaeda and the Taliban is principly because the victims of the Jihadis have been other Muslims. The resounding silence that we hear whenever there is an atrocity committed against non-Muslims, infidels, throughout the Middle East, and the cheers and celebrations that break out whenever infidels are murdered, should be evidence enough that opposition to radical Islam and terror has not yet become institutionalized. By once again appearing to reward terror and the threat of terror, as we have been doing consistently viz the Palestinians, we make future Jihad terror more, not less, likely.
Millennial cults offer simple solutions to complex and dynamic situations. I do not believe that Barack Obama is a Millennialist. I think he is merely taking advantage of an opportunity and riding the emotional wave with hopes that it will carry him to the White House. At that point he will either disappoint his followers by suddenly noticing the complexity of the world he is forced to deal with, or reward their faith by attempting to join them in a holiday from history. Further, his instincts appear to favor a reliably traditional and moribund liberal philosophy which includes an anti-military and quasi-pacifistic bent. One way or another the Obama wave will break before too long since he cannot deliver what is promised.
The foolish efforts to reward Islamic fascists as if they were rational and reasonable aggrieved peoples is likely to enhance the fervor of the Islamists in the West and re-direct the Jihad toward the infidel outside of the Middle East. If offered the opportunity by a premature American withdrawal from Iraq, they will certainly re-double their efforts there and will probably succeed in radicalizing the neighborhood further.
The intersection of Obamamania and radical Islam will be combustible. Will the spark once again come from the Balkans?
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