There has been an impressive conspiracy of silence regarding one particular aspect of the situation in Hamastan (Gaza) which may be dissolving of necessity; this conspiracy reeks of hypocrisy and venality but has served the needs of the Palestinians, their Arab brethren, and the usual demonizers of Israel, which includes the UN and much of the Western press. It is a two part fiction. The first part deals with the Palestinian/Gazan relationship with Egypt. Despite the fact that every map of Palestine shows a long border between Egypt and Gaza, the MSM typically neglects to follow a simple line of logic; ie, while it may be true that the Israelis at long last had finally cut off some supplies into Gaza from Israel in response to the dramatic escalation of rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza into Southern Israel, few Diplomats or Media spokespeople were so impolite as to mention that it would be a trivial matter for Egypt to take over the task of distributing the West's largess to the suffering population of Gaza. To those who might object that Israel would not allow Egypt to do so, perhaps Condoleeza Rice could remind them that as part of the current push for a "peace process" Israel ceded the border between Gaza and Egypt to Egyptian administration. While food, fuel, medical supplies could have easily been imported through Egypt, for political reasons both Egypt and Gaza abjured such an obvious solution. Maintaining the fiction that the big, bad Israelis were starving the poor Innocent Palestinians was of more value than actually caring for th Gaza population. Further, Egypt, to all accounts, has always had a rather porous border when it came to military supplies.
The second part of the fiction is part of a larger one, Arab solidarity with the Palestinians. The Ummah has been primarily concerned with destroying Israel and Palestinian suffering and Palestinian terror has been their primary weapon.
Both of these issues have been clarified in the last 24 hours.
Details are uncertain. Steven Erlanger, the resident Palestinian apologist at the New York Times, offers one view:
Palestinians Topple Gaza Wall and Cross to Egypt
Thousands of Palestinians streamed from the Gaza Strip into Egypt on Wednesday after a fence at the Rafah border crossing was toppled, going on a buying spree of fuel, medicine, soap, cigarettes and many other supplies that have been cut off during days of blockade by Israel.
Palestinians crossed the border after militants exploded a wall between the Gaza Strip and Egypt on Wednesday.
The scene at the border was one of a great bazaar, with Palestinians piling donkeys, carts and motorcycles high with goats, mattresses, chickens, televisions, cement and other goods they had been unable to buy in Gaza. [Emphasis mine-SW]
Militants is the approved New York Times term for masked gunmen, Hamas linked terrorists and fighters, and assorted others who target civilians as their primary targets. The great bazaar is worth a comment since the Palestinians are supposed to be destitute; at least that is what we have been told for the last several years as the reason they need so much aid money form the gullible West. However, those two points pale in comparison to the Thousands. Consider this description from YNET:
Hundreds of thousands cross into Egypt from Gaza
Palestinian gunmen affiliated with different organizations set off several explosive devices on Tuesday night along the concrete wall dividing the Palestinian and Egyptian Rafah, after the crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip were closed off.
Thousands of Gaza's residents began pouring into the Sinai Peninsula early Wednesday through the breach created in the wall. Shortly afterwards, Egyptian authorities were forced to open the border. Some 350,000 people had reportedly crossed into Sinai by the afternoon hours. [Emphasis mine-SW]
Ed Morrissey sees reason for concern at these events:
Israel has a reason to be concerned with the Rafah breach. The open border between Gaza and Egypt could easily allow for heavier arms to come into the area. At the moment, the Israelis have no good reason to start another major military engagement in Gaza, but an uptick in weaponry might change that. If the Palestinians bring in better rockets and perhaps even more destructive weapons, the IDF will have to invade to destroy them -- which could wind up getting very bloody indeed.
In fact, Hamas has been slowly escalating to the best (worst?) of their abilities since Israel abandoned Gaza. This can only accelerate matters and may fit into a pattern suggesting the war expected last summer may be planned for this summer. However, there is another aspect of this that needs to be emphasized. A siege can only work if a city is surrounded. Gaza was never surrounded by Israel and its siege always required Hamas's voluntary cooperation. Now that Hamastan has established overt trade and economic ties with Egypt, re-closing the border in order to maintain the meme of Israeli intransigence and brutality becomes untenable.
More from the YNET article:
Many of the refugees arrived at the el-Arish area in Sinai. Some of the people united with their families, some attempted to settle in the area, while other returned home with food and medicines.
A mass flight from the Strip into the Egyptian territories is considered one of the worst scenarios, as far as Cairo is concerned. So far officers from the Egyptian side of the border had attempted to ward off the wave of refugees.
IDF officials fear that the weapon smuggling through the Egyptian border into the Strip, which takes place almost without any disturbance, will now be intensified.
...
Sources in Hamas estimated that the Palestinians would be allowed to cross the border for at least the next 24 hours until order is imposed in the area. A local resident told Ynet, however, that the fence was almost entirely breached and it would be difficult to prevent people from passing through. [All Emphasis mine-SW]
Ed Morrissey is almost certainly correct that Hamas will use the opportunity to enhance their weaponry and escalate their war with Israel. Yet at the same time, the ties between Egypt and Gaza, including an exit corridor for those looking to leave the Gaza strip, is now open for business. Disaffected Gazans, many of whom have expressed the desire to evacuate a war zone and have effectively been imprisoned by Hamas, will have opportunities to leave and resettle elsewhere.
The possibilities are intriguing. Gaza can now integrate its economy with Egypt and start to build structures. If Tom Barnett, et al, are correct this will inevitably moderate their behavior. If, as is more likely (consider the Scorpion and the Frog), Hamas provokes a larger war with Israel, Gaza citizens will have an exit and can become real refugees, not the faux refugees they have been since 1948. In such a circumstance, the strictures that have been imposed on Israel by the human shields that Hamas has wielded so effectively, will loosen with results that have the potential to surprise many and change the dynamics of the confrontation in unforeseeable ways.
This could well be the start of very significant shifts in the Israeli-Palestinian dynamics; time will tell.
Update: Its nice to see that Noah Pollak at Contentions is thinking along the same lines, although he doesn't take the argument as far as I do. He even titles his post, Good News in Gaza. The key points:
... Egypt has been trying to play a delicate game: keep Hamas in the game by allowing them to bring in weapons, cash, and terrorists, but not so conspicuously that it causes a serious American or Israeli backlash.
But today, Hamas just blew the border fence down. Suddenly, some of the pressure that has built up in Gaza over the past several months has been released, and it didn’t go toward Israel — it went into Egypt, and now the Egyptians are faced with a calamitous situation.
Egypt has been hoisted with its own petard, and it is really quite enjoyable to see from a strategic perspective. Hamas probably blew up the border fence with explosives that Egypt allowed it to smuggle into Gaza. Heh.
Recent Comments