The near future for Israel is bleak. Everyday rockets rain down on southern Israel from the Gaza strip; Sderot is partially abandoned and as the Gazan rockets gain in accuracy and distance, more and more Israelis will come within range. This is not a stable situation and as Hillel Halkin suggests this morning, the Israeli options are almost universally poor. None of the options are likely to actually stop the attacks, though his second option is the most likely in the near term:
2. Escalate the pressure. Attack Hamas installations, institutions, and leaders; respond to rocket and mortar attacks with air and artillery strikes that may result in larger numbers of civilian casualties on the Palestinian side; tighten the siege on Gaza by reducing or cutting off Israeli electricity to it, preventing the shipment into it of basic commodities and foodstuffs, etc.
The Israelis are facing not only a hostile, openly genocidal enemy on their south but they also face a hostile, openly genocidal enemy to their north (Hezbollah), northeast (Syria), and further east (Iran.) At the same time they face a hostile international press and have almost no chance to even come close to a neutral battle space in the information war. It is the information war that most limits Israel's responses, as well as the well-founded fear that widening the war would cause universal condemnation upon Israel if the world's oil supply were to be threatened (as it would be if Israel were to go after Damascus or Tehran as the source of the terror against them.)
As Hillel Halkin notes in his conclusion, after dismissing all the other options aas unworkable or too risky:
That leaves 2. And indeed, this is what we most likely will get in the months ahead: A slow and steady ratcheting up of military and economic pressure on the Gaza Strip with the prayer that nothing blows up too badly in Israel's face while this is being done. Will it stop the Kassams? Probably not, but it's worth a try. After that, it will be time to think of Option 6.
No nation can long survive constant attacks on its civilians with no ability to respond in a definitive way. Since Israel can only respond in a definitive way (ie, with overwhelming force, enough to destroy the enemy's will and ability to carry on the war) to an existential threat, and cannot indefinitely survive a war of attrition with the Arab world, prospects seem bleak.
The West has now pledged over $6 billion for the Palestinians. If the past is prologue this simply means that the terrorists will have more weaponry to use against Israel; as a bonus, the West has been training and equipping some of the Palestinian militias. Since the Palestinians have never yet used their militias to fight and control the terrorists amongst them (after all they are brothers in arms) and have always found a way to turn their weapons against their real enemy, Israel, this means yet another iteration of the intifada looms. Add in that Hezbollah believes they have found the formula for fighting Israel to a draw (kill Israeli civilians and soldiers, use your own people as human shields to leverage the Press in the information war, and wait until the United States and the international community stops Israel) and you have an unstable mix.
Despite the celebration of Annapolis in some quarters, rather than advancing the possibility of peace in the Middle East, all that has been accomplished is that the HISH alliance has received the strong message that they are winning and can win. The recent assassination of General Hajj in Lebanon, which bears all the hallmarks of a Syrian hit, suggest the Syrians have not suddenly abandoned their alliance with Iran and decided to throw in their lit with the American led Peace Process. As Noah Pollack describes:
The news from Lebanon is getting worse and worse. On Wednesday, François Hajj, a prominent general in the Lebanese Army, was killed in a massive car bombing near Beirut. He is the ninth Lebanese political figure to be murdered since the car-bombing of Rafik Hariri in 2005 kicked off Syria’s killing spree.
Anyone who has been paying attention for the last 60 years should appreciate that Syria defines its national interest in ways that are inimical to democracy and peace; they are not about to abandon the rejectionists any time soon.
The near term is going to be a time of looming existential threat to Israel. An Iranian bomb and the ensuing strategic imbalance created by their possession of the ultimate WMD seems almost assured; only the time-line remains in doubt. At some point the escalation of Hamas attacks will pass a threshold (how many dead Israelis justifies cutting off Gaza's electricity and oil supplies?) and the risk of wider war will increase by the day. It is difficult to imagine Israel re-occupying Gaza or leveling Gaza without a response from Hezbollah and the international community.
Yet, there is light at the end of the tunnel. There are developments in the works that will increase Israel's security, increase the separation between Israel and its Arab neighbors and diminish the risk of large scale multiple casualty attacks from their enemies. At that point Peace may actually come to the Middle East by default.
Tomorrow I will discuss Option 6 which includes a review of some of the advances that have the potential to protect Israel and end this war without mass destruction.
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