There are a myriad of Worst Case Scenarios possible but all of them start with Iran obtaining nuclear capabilities. The reason that Iran and nuclear weapons defines the WCS is that almost every branch that follows leads to extremely dangerous outcomes.
Iran's current political system is a metastable construct. Its economy is non-productive, it is cannibalizing its own oil industry, and it requires the constant infusion of petrodollars to essentially bribe its population into submission. In other words, once the economy deteriorates to such a point where a significant majority of the population is more threatened by their own economic deprivation than by openly confronting the regime's thugs, open rebellion is inevitable. The regime is supported by too small a segment of the population to withstand a popular uprising and since they would not voluntarily disappear from the scene quietly, their eschatological beliefs dictate that such a crisis point would be a time of extreme risk of their use of nuclear weapons against their enemies, which since the Khomeini revolution have been most prominently the Great Satan (America) and the Little Satan (Israel), but also include the (near) infidels in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.
On the other hand, if they achieve nuclear capabilities and the regime is thus emboldened and able to extort more from the West and sustain their rule for a longer period before the fall, the temptation to increase the activities of their terror proxies, including the use of nuclear weapons if and when they believe they can do so with relative impunity, will become irresistible.
World opinion, especially in Europe and the Islamic world, has been carefully prepared by the left and the Islamic fascists and their enablers, for the destruction of Israel. It would be a disaster of unimaginable proportions for the world to lose one of the beacons of democracy and technological and scientific progress, but if the story ended there, the WCS could, perhaps be manageable. It would never end there however; the Jews are never the end and are forever the beginning.
As Benny Morris pointed out in his recent article, Israel can only use its own nuclear weapons either too early or too late. I am convinced that the current leadership, paralyzed by their ambivalence, desperate for a peace that recedes with every effort they make to appease the Palestinian/Muslim hate, will never be able to use their nuclear weapons too early and I doubt they will have the ability to use them too late. Masada and Samson are defining myths for the Jewish people; despair leads to Masada, while defiance leads to Samson. Israel's current leadership is defined much more by despair than defiance. In any event, whether or not Israel decides to destroy Iran's ability to function as a modern state is immaterial once Israel no longer exists. The Palestinians would certainly use the occasion of a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv to invade, probably joined in short order by Syria, and Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon; the conflagration would inevitably spread, with rumors emerging from Iran of the return of the 12th Imam fueling Shia fervor (which is suicidally reckless in the best of times); an uprising of the Saudi Shia would follow.
This does not even begin to describe the damage to the world economy that would be an inevitable outcome of the closure, quite possibly by radioactive measures, of the Gulf of Hormuz through which as much as 40% of the world's oil flows.
How would China respond to the threat of a depression and its attendant civil unrest. For thousands of years, the Chinese have been more frightened of civil disorder than of anything else; the time honored method of deflecting civil distress from internal to external sources has been to begin a foreign adventure. Would Taiwan be spared at such a time?
Time frames are, of course, important here. Once Iran has a bomb, how long would it be before Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, et al, have their own bombs, quite possible purchased off the shelf of their fellow Sunni state, Pakistan. Knowing that Iran has a bomb with important technology supplied by North Korea, and threatened by China, what is the likelihood of Taiwan, Japan, South Korea eschewing the bomb. If Taiwan has a bomb and is threatened by China, how much of a miscalculation would it take for them to use it?
None of these eventualities are certain but these are the kinds of questions that would automatically ensue from the successful demonstration of an Iranian bomb.
Recently the Rand corporation published a study of the effects of a nuclear detonation in an American port (Long Beach.) Their focus was on the immediate and short term effects on the population, with some discussion of the medium to long term effect on world trade. I would suggest that a nuclear detonation anywhere in the world, especially if not immediately and directly tied to a state, would usher in a series of draconian laws and regulations that would effectively cripple world commerce for years. A worldwide depression would be inescapable and in our interconnected world, break downs in civil society around the globe would inevitably impact everyone of us. We would be entering a frightening time where the rules that have governed and allowed for the emergence of our modern world would have broken down.
Yesterday, Douglass Carmichael left a revealing comment to my post:
I was not aware of the depth of Hobbesian assumptions about human nature, and i am faced with that new question - why?
I would submit to Douglass that, as Freud pointed out more than once, civilization exists as a thin veneer atop and despite our fundamental irrationality. I would note that even on this Blog, where almost all the commenters attempt to be respectful and have a much better than average grasp of language (hallmarks of civilized behavior) I, and others, on many occasions, have been described as having dangerous levels of aggression. If we question each other's ability to behave in a civilized manner in this setting, how much more fragile is civilization in a world awash with angry young men with AK-47s and RPGs?
Human history is marked by the failures of civilizations; if anything, civilization is the exception in human history rather than the rule. The modern world appears to be robust, able to tolerate such insults as 9/11 with seeming aplomb, yet if the United Sates fails to assert itself as the policeman of last resort, countries such as China, Russia, Sudan, Iran, will surely enforce their own version of the Hobbsian dilemma.
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