During the 2004 Presidential election campaign, there were vigorous efforts made to depict anyone who questioned the wisdom of the Democratic position as, in reality, unfairly questioning the Democrat's patriotism. This became a heavily weighted meme that has continued to be bandied about; to oppose the anti-war position has been declared tantamount to questioning people's patriotism (along with trying to limit free speech and, for those most afflicted with BDS, usher in fascism.) The meme was used frequently during the 2006 election campaign. The standard MSM story line, that Iraq is a disastrous mess and a quagmire, carried the day and the Democrats won the House and Senate (barely). Since then, the pressure to oppose the war has only escalated. When the Iraq Study Group came forward with its mish-mash of a 79 point plan, which essentially advocated surrender disguised as a negotiated withdrawal, the plan gained no traction, leaving the President subsequent plan as the only alternative to immediate withdrawal.
From accounts in the MilBlogs and reports in the Blogosphere, it is clear that the current plan includes significant changes in our ROE, strategy, and tactics. While there is obviously no guarantee of victory even in the best of circumstances, there are numerous reports emerging of significant early successes of the Plan. Sadr's Mahdi army is no longer off limits; the Iranian influence is being more directly addressed; and the Sunni insurgents have been leaving Baghdad in droves.
Despite these early successes, the American public remains pessimistic. Yesterday, Fox News published an Opinion Dynamics poll documenting the level of disenchantment with the Iraq War and the new Plan. I rarely pay much attention to polls but there were items in this poll that caught my attention:
FOX News Poll: Most Think Troop Surge Is Bush’s Last Chance in Iraq
NEW YORK — A majority of Americans consider President Bush’s plan to send more troops to Iraq his last chance for victory there, according to a new FOX News poll.
Overall, the president’s plan receives only minority support, and that comes mainly from his party faithful. A large part of the public’s opposition to the plan could be based on the fact that most see it as a continuation of the same strategy, rather than as a real change.
Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from January 16 to January 17. The poll has a 3-point error margin.
By 59 percent to 36 percent, Americans oppose sending more U.S. troops to Iraq, not only because most believe it is unlikely the plan will succeed, but also because few voters see the plan Bush announced last week as a significant change to current policy.
The story after the jump contains provocative data.
Even though a majority opposes Bush’s new plan and many are doubtful it can succeed, that does not mean they want it to fail: 63 percent of Americans say they want the plan to succeed, including 79 percent of Republicans, 63 percent of independents and 51 percent of Democrats.
On the larger political front, more people think "most Democrats" want the Bush plan to fail and for him to have to withdraw troops in defeat (48 percent), than think Democrats want the plan to succeed and lead to a stable Iraq (32 percent).
I would point out that the poll almost certainly celebrates ignorance more than anything else; a truly revealing poll question would be how many people have actually read the published plan itself, rather than receiving the wisdom of the MSM? Another good question would be how many believe their politicians have actually read the plan? Perhaps the poll could have asked how many know who General Petraeus is and what is his connection to the current plan on counter-insurgency? In any event, we must accept as a given that most people will form opinions based on very limited information. That being conceded, the idea that only a slight minority of Democrats, a decent majority of independents, and a larger majority of Republicans want the plan to succeed, means that there is a sizable group of Americans who do not want the plan to succeed. This struck me as so outrageous that I decided to take a look at the actual pdf file of the raw data. What I found was even worse than reported:
Do you personally want the Iraq plan President Bush announced last week to succeed?
Yes No (Don’t know)
16-17 Jan 07 63% 22 15
Democrats 51% 34 15
Republicans 79% 11 10
Independents 63% 19 17
I emphasized the percent of respondents who either do not want the plan to succeed or answered "don't know". How one can answer they don't know is probably yet another measure of ignorance, perhaps admixed with stupidity, but to want the plan to fail enters another realm. Perhaps these people misunderstood the question or failed to understand what it meant. Unfortunately, follow-up questions suggest they knew exactly what they were answering:
21. Do you think most Democrats want the Iraq plan President Bush announced last week to succeed and lead to a stable Iraq or do they want it to fail and for him to have to withdraw U.S. troops in defeat?
SCALE: 1. Most Democrats want Bush plan to succeed 2. Most Democrats want Bush plan to fail 3. (Some want one thing, some another) 4. (Don’t know)
Success Failure (Some one,some another) (DK)
16-17 Jan 07 32% 48 8 11
Democrats 42% 38 7 12
Republicans 21% 67 7 5
Independents 30% 42 11 17
22. If U.S. troops were to withdraw from Iraq before the country was stabilized, do you think Usama bin Laden would claim victory?
Yes No (Don’t know)
16-17 Jan 07 60% 26 14
Democrats 52% 33 14
Republicans 76% 15 9
Independents 54% 27 19
By my reading even many Democrats believe that their fellow Democrats want the plan to fail and they recognize that such a failure would be seen as a victory by al Qaeda. (We will leave Iran out of the equation since the poll did not ask the question.) But, do they understand what failure means?
29. Do you consider the recent plan to send additional troops to Iraq to be President Bush’s last chance for victory in Iraq or will he be able to try again?
Last chance Try again (Victory not possible) (Don’t know)
16-17 Jan 07 61% 26 4 9
Democrats 64% 23 4 9
Republicans 61% 29 1 9
Independents 59% 26 7 8
With those numbers, it is hard to escape the conclusion that this plan is indeed our last chance to succeed in Iraq, not for military reasons, but for political reasons. We have now established that the plan is our last chance, people are convinced we are going to fail, and a significant number of Americans desire our failure. Again I ask, do they know what they are desirous of?
30. If the United States loses the war in Iraq, do you believe terrorists would be more likely to be satisfied, and leave the United States alone or encouraged to attack the United States again, or will it not make a difference to future attacks?
Leave U.S. alone - Encouraged to attack - No difference - (Don’t know)
16-17 Jan 07 7% 46 43 5
Democrats 11% 36 50 4
Republicans 4% 61 31 4
Independents 5% 46 44 5
Admittedly, many of those who wish for our failure could claim that it would make no difference that al Qaeda would declare victory and could make the assertion that our failure would make no difference in encouraging further attacks. The fact that this would be inconsistent with human behavior (ie when people think they are succeeding in what they are doing, they usually continue with their plans rather than make course corrections) is irrelevant to these people. The poll results lead me to ask the question that is so fiercely resisted by those who oppose the war: If you admit that you want the plan to fail, and failure means more pain and suffering for Americans, at what point does that bring your patriotism into question?
Recent Comments