There has been a great deal written recently about the timidity with which Israel has been conducting the war against Hezbollah. Yesterday I suggested that Israel could not win this war strategically until and unless Iran's ability to re-supply Hezbollah with men and materiel was interrupted.
Similar sentiments are being expressed around the blogosphere, including in Israel. Rafi G, who blogs at Life in Israel, writes Let the IDF win! [HT: Judith at Kesher Talk]
We are in a situation today where the government, led by two inexperienced politicians (Defense Minister Amir Peretz and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert), is making serious decisions on how to wage the current war. The problem is they keep changing their minds. They are not allowing the IDF to win. They decided to flatten the land with an aerial assault prior to sending in the ground troops. They did this far too long, and Hezbollah had the opportunity to hide bunker down and retain their power and ability to shoot the Katyushas and other rockets.
It is not a matter of whether or not Israel will subdue Hezbollah. Eventually we will, regardless of all these problems. The problem is that we are not fighting an army or conquering land. A victory is not as clear cut as in the standard type of battle. In the type of war we are fighting, aside from achieving the sought out goals (in this case of getting back the captured soldiers and stopping the Katyushas), a sense of deterrence must be achieved in order to prevent future attacks.
Yoni the Blogger reports on the crippling fear permeating the Prime Minster's office:
Today it is reported that part of the reason for the slow going in Lebanon is that officials in the Prime Ministers Office are afraid that if the IDF pushes to the Litani River that Hizballah will fire missiles at Tel Aviv.
How can you run a country with such cowards, scum and traitors running the store?
Today Israel doesn't act because of fear that Tel Aviv might get hit, where does it end?
If we were this afraid in 1948 we never would have a State called Israel.
Certainly, the Olmert government reeks of irresolution and this is quite dangerous for Israel, though almost all commentators (with the sole exception of Jonah Goldberg today) are convinced that Israel will eventually win on the ground. I think most of the anxiety for Israel has to do with the understanding that however well Israel does on the ground militarily, it can never win the strategic war (short of an outright Western, American led, victory over the prime mover of Islamic fascism, Iran). There are myriad ways in which Israel can lose in the long run, but all basically come down to the same point:
Any resolution to the current war that allows Hezbollah to continue to exist as an armed organization is a strategic loss for Israel.
It doesn't matter if Israel degrades 90% of Hezbollah's capability; in order to re-arm and replace lost fighters, all it will take is some time; Iran and Syria will do the rest.
The easiest way for Hezbollah to win this war would be to stop fighting. As soon as they stop tossing rockets into Israel and magnanimously, with great fanfare, trumpeted by their captive members of the MSM, declare a "cease fire", the pressure on Israel to stop fighting begins to mount inexorably. The United States would hold back the tide as long as possible, but with the Israeli government running such a restrained (inept?) war, no one should expect the Bush administration to put more effort into defending Israel than Israel does. The appearance that Israel is fighting a desultory war and would be satisfied with an interim settlement would make a UN supported temporary cease fire a certainty.
Fortunately for Israel, and unfortunately for the Arab world, there has never been an Arab fighting force that was able to quit while ahead. Hezbollah, cheered on by their own propaganda and their need for self-aggrandizement, see themselves fighting the mighty Israeli war machine to a draw and believe that means they are winning. They believe Israeli restraint is because of their threats (and maybe they are correct) and their prowess, when the only thing truly restraining Israel's military is Israel's government and humanity. Seemingly of even greater import, no Islamist "army" has ever been able to pass up the opportunity to kill Jews; Hezbollah, whose raison d'etre is to kill Jews, can't stop themselves from carrying the fight to Israel. As a result, Israel is as united as that fractious country ever gets; Captain Ed puts it well:
The attack and abduction by Hezbollah that triggered the current war has united the Israeli Right and Left, resulting in an unprecedented mandate for the government to press forward with massive military action. Criticism of the government has mostly focused on getting the government to commit more resources to the fight, not for an end to action.
I would add that the continuing use of rockets, terror weapons, against the Israeli population (still waiting for the international community to condemn Hezbollah's war crimes...still waiting...) has sustained the mobilized Israeli public in ways that past abductions failed to do. As long as Hezbollah continues to fire their rockets, Israel has no choice but to fight on and even a government led by people whose entire political careers have been devoted to the "Peace Process" has no choice but to eventually find a way to fight the war more effectively. Just as Hezbollah does what it does because "its their nature", the French are doing their part to help Israel fight this war more effectively; they, too, can't help themselves, "its their nature."
Since 1948, the enemies of the Jews have repeatedly forced the Jews to re-find their resolve, and now Hezbollah is carrying on the tradition.
Bonus note only slightly off-topic: Jethro Tull was one of the great bands of the late 60s, early 70s, coming out of the UK. While younger fans might insist that Aqualung is their greatest album, I am partial to Stand Up and Benefit as their two finest works. Ian Anderson was unforgettable playing the flute on one leg and apparently he remains a "Stand Up" gentleman:
Jethro Tull's soloist: Show must go on
Ian Anderson, Jethro Tull's soloist and flutist, is still planning to come to Israel. 'I don’t think any of us should succumb to terror, I am afraid of coming to Israel but I am also afraid to cross the street'
Ian Anderson, Jethro Tull's soloist and flutist since 1967, is due to appear in Israel on October 16th, 2006 for the fifth time. Anderson will be playing in concert with the Raanana Symphony Orchestra set to take place at the city's famed amphitheatre.
Ian Anderson will make some concessions to the war, however:
"My good flute will stay at home," he said explaining that there is always a risk of loss or damage when going on tour.
With friends like this, Israel is in very good shape.
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