Some time ago, when the United States sold 500 bunker buster bombs to Israel, there were many people who thought this was a tacit admission that the US expected Israel to do the dirty work in Iran. Today, there are news reports of Israel using their bunker busters to take out Hezbollah bunkers, in which resided various leaders of the terrorist group and various missile stock piles.
Army using bunker-busters against Hizbullah leadership
A senior IAF officer revealed to the Post on Sunday afternoon that the IDF was using bunker-buster bombs to strike at senior Hizbullah officials in hiding throughout Beirut and Lebanon. According to the officer, several of the bunker hideouts were hidden under civilian parking lots.
In the same article, there was the suggestion that Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have miscalculated. The enemies of Israel have traditionally ended up believing their own bluster and attacking prematurely and/or unwisely. This is typical of people caught in an Honor/Shame paradigm, since appearance is more powerful than reality to such people. In the past, they could always count on the International Community, especially the United States, reining in Israel before they were defeated (in their own minds, the Israeli's being forced to stop their offensives have always been imagined as victories for the losers.) Now it seems the rules of the game have changed on them and they are mystified:
Meanwhile, Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, a pro-Syrian close ally of Hizbullah, said that Israel's bloody assault could push desperate Lebanese citizens to sacrifice their lives to defend their country - and even commit acts of terrorism.
He added, however, that the Lebanese "will not surrender," and pleaded for the UN Security Council to "stop violence and arrange a cease-fire" so discussions could take place.
Lahoud also accused the Security Council of delaying intervention to stop Israel's military operation, thereby giving them extra time to make Lebanon surrender to its conditions.
On Fox News Sunday, Condaleeza Rice offered more evidence that the rules of engagement for Israel have changed, though Senator Chris Dodd (D-Ct) and Juan Williams have not seemed to notice.
She repeatedly said that a ceasefire without the disarming of Hezbollah would be counter-productive, and that Syria and Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, are responsible for the current situation, not Israel.
Dodd railed against the Bush administration's failure to have anyone to talk to in Hezbollah and Iran, and Juan Williams faithfully supported the idea that there should be a cease fire and more talking. It was gratifying to see Mara Liasson, a very committed liberal pundit, point out to Juan Williams that Hezbollah does not want to talk; they want to destroy Israel. She helpfully pointed out that with no one to talk to, Israel needs to make sure that Hezbollah is disarmed.
One way to determine that Honor/Shame countries are worried is when their bluster increases to cover their fear. I can almost feel some sympathy for Hizbullah head Hassan Nasrallah:
Nasrallah calls for aid from Arab world
"Where are the Arab nations?" he asked, moments after declaring that Hizbullah wouldn't ask for help from anyone.
Nasrallah is feeling alone and abandoned. I do not hate him; I just think he needs to be killed. Hezbollah's world view and mine are completely antithetical and they have repeatedly made clear that they have no intention of ever living in peace with Israel or with Israel's friends. At a certain point, there is no more use in talking and there is no choice left but to kill the people who want to kill you. Hezbollah is free to use the same exact reasoning (and they do, though I think their belief is based on paranoid projection) which changes nothing. This war has always been inevitable, it is only the timing that was ever in question.
As if to prove how badly he is hurt (and there are reports Nasrullah has been buried in the rubble under his apartment building which the Israelis destroyed), his recorded message escalates the rhetoric (just as Iran's Ahmadinejad has done):
Speaking to Lebanese civilians, many of whom have expressed anger at Hizbullah's Wednesday attack in which two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped and which triggered a massive Israeli aerial bombardment of Lebanese infrastructure, Nasrallah affirmed that all damage caused by IDF strikes would be repaired after the battle was won.
"We have friends who have a great ability to help us financially," he said.
He also urged the Arab world not to believe Israeli claims about the escalating conflict. "The enemy is lying," he declared, saying the "Zionists" were "managing a psychological war against us."
In an unusually apologetic tone, Nasrallah said the organization had "no choice" but to hit the city of Haifa with rockets Sunday after Israel struck civilians in Lebanon.
Nasrallah also used his speech to repeat threats to IDF forces and Israel.
"If the enemy invades, we will have the opportunity to meet Israeli tanks [in battle]," he said, adding that Hizbullah fighters were "ready to sacrifice themselves and are convinced they will be victorious."
He also warned that the organization had many "surprises" in store for the "Zionists." He claimed that Hizbullah has refrained from striking Haifa petrochemical plants but could reverse this decision.
"One of our sources of strength is that the enemy does not know our power. He is working from wrong information, and therefore is lying," Nasrallah said of IDF assessments that five days of air strikes have severely damaged the organization's operational capabilities.
"We have the power to hurt you," he told "the Zionist people. "Your army and your government are misleading you."
Nasrallah also announced that Hizbullah would "start the next phase" of the conflict "since Israel has declared open war." He said the organization "won't hurt civilians unless you force us to," but declared it could "hit every town in northern Palestine." [Emphasis mine-SW]
This is rich in irony since that is the primary tactic that Hezbollah has used for many years. Katyusha rockets, fired with only a very limited sense of where they are going, are not militarily useful weapons; they are terror weapons.
Things could yet spin out of control. The Israelis have acted with great restraint, despite the Islamists' claims of genocidal attacks by Israel. (A death toll in the hundreds, while significant, is hardly evidence of genocide after four days of ongoing warfare.) If Hezbollah has, and uses, WMD or if Syria gets involved and uses WMD, things could get very bad very quickly. If poison gas is used, Israel will no longer worry about being so careful to minimize civilian casualties, often at increased risk of Israeli casualties and damage to Israeli objectives. If the enemy is unwise enough to take that step, it is very likely that their regimes and their patrons will not survive it.
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