Israeli troops remain poised on the borders of the Gaza strip. Israel has arrested over 60 members of Hamas, including several ministers and members of the Palestinian Parliament. It remains uncertain how much farther the Israeli response will go; apparently there are negotiations of a sort going on between the Hamas leadership in Damascus, Khalid Mashaal, and the Israeli government, through the offices of the Egyptian government. The short-term, best case scenario is that Gilad Shalit is released and the Israelis release a number of Palestinian prisoners in return. However, in the long term this will just "kick the can" down the road.
Caroline Glick believes that Israeli Prime Minister Olmert still refuses to get it:
Olmert and his associates in the government have pointed their fingers at Hamas blaming it for the Palestinian guerilla attack on Israeli territory Sunday morning while ignoring Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah terror group's equal share of culpability. It was Fatah, not Hamas that kidnapped and murdered 18 year old Eliyahu Asheri. It is Fatah that is threatening to blow up Israeli embassies abroad. It is Fatah that is threatening to renew shooting attacks on Jerusalem and attack Israel with chemical and biological weapons. It is Fatah that is threatening to kill the IDF hostage Cpl. Gilad Shalit.
While Shin Bet Director Yuval Diskin was preparing the list of Hamas leaders IDF forces arrested in Judea and Samaria Wednesday night, Abbas was finalizing his deal with Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh for the formation of a Hamas-Fatah unity government. Abbas and Haniyeh not only agreed to form a unity government, they also agreed that Hamas would become a member of the PLO. Aside from that, they agreed that to establish a unified force for fighting their joint war against Israel. That is, this week, as Israel trained its rifles on Hamas alone, Abbas effectively unified Hamas with Fatah.
Her prescription is for the IDF to reoccupy the Gaza Strip in order to prevent a recurrence of the events (daily Qassam rocket barrages, the assault on the outpost and capture of the Israeli soldier) that led to the current situation. Further, the overall deterioration of Israeli security caused by the formation of a terror state next door, with increased weapon imports, sophisticated tunneling operations, and the establishment of an al Qaeda beach head in Gaza can only be addressed by having "boots on the ground."
Caroline Glick is correct in her assessment and is also quite correct in her judgment that the Israeli government (and I suspect a large portion of the Israeli public) do not want to face the painful recognition that it is the Palestinian people who are at war with Israel, nor merely one or the other faction of terrorists. Unfortunately, the American government and a large portion of the American public also do not see that this is a war between two peoples, which is why Condoleeza Rice can, without apparent irony or discomfort, counsel restraint at such a time.
[I purposely leave the Europeans out of this because ultimately their opinions do not really matter; too many Europeans would be only too happy to see the state of Israel disappear.]
Because of this refusal to face such a bleak and harsh reality, the Israelis can not fight to win their war (which they barely acknowledge as a war between two peoples); they continue to be trapped in a defensive posture and can not take the terrible steps necessary to finally end this war. Unfortunately, this represents the new Rules of War under which the Israelis must now operate. They can no longer fight offensive wars against hostile populations, but can only enter defensive engagements which must be seen as in proportion to the abilities of their enemy rather than the intentions of their enemy. Thus, the ineptitude of the Palestinians protects them against the kind of response from the Israelis that could finally settle the war.
There is every reason to fear that this Israeli diffidence, supported by the United States, will undermine both the Israelis and our fight against different iterations of the same menace.
In Iraq, we fought under Marquis of Queensbury rules which almost certainly cost more American lives, but there is, and was, reason to believe that if we conducted ourselves in the way we have, eventually the Iraqi people would take control of their own fate and win the war against the Islamic fascists in their midst. It has been a very difficult job, our troops have been magnificent, and we may yet win.
The problem with the Palestinians is that there is no significant sub-population who want peace with Israel; there are merely different groups who have different views on the optimal tactics to use to destroy the hated Jewish state. In their hatred of Israel and the Jews, the Palestinians have important allies among almost every other Muslim country in the world, especially Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. There has never been any Palestinian leader ready and willing to tell his people they must give up their dream of returning to their homes in "occupied Palestine."
The dilemma for Israel is that to carry the war to the Palestinian people will be horrifyingly costly in terms of Palestinian civilian casualties, yet that is the only way the Palestinians will ever be convinced they have lost their war. The Israelis know that the Untied States will not support such warfare, and it also risks tearing asunder the social fabric of Israel, where so many still cling to their traditional liberal belief in the basic good of humanity, even when the humanity involved is distinctly inhumane.
Unless the Palestinians can create an attack that is serious enough to threaten the survival of the Jewish state (nuclear, biologic, chemical come to mind) the Israelis will continue to exercise the restraint that will deprive them of victory, the Palestinians will continue to fantasize about destroying their enemy, the rest of the Arab/Muslim world will continue to sympathize with the "poor, oppressed Palestinian people", and the war will never end. Perhaps a state of low level ongoing terror and reprisal is the best outcome one can hope for, but that is a depressing prospect. The problem with this outcome is that as long as it persists, it will be impossible to resolve the broader war of which it remains a key front. There will be a steady stream of new recruits, and more hatred, as the plight of the Palestinians continues to fuel the hate filled dreams of the Islamic expansionists who believe that the very existence of Israel is an affront to Muslims everywhere.
As so often happens, one of my commenters, abu al-fin, left a comment to my post yesterday which presaged my argument and is quite succinct:
If Palestinians had taken all the billions in foreign aid they have received over the decades, and invested in their human capital, education, infrastructure--Palestine would be a thriving "country" in its own right. Israelis would be begging well educated, skilled Palestinians to work for Israeli industries.
Instead virtually the whole population of Palestinian arabs have gone over to the dark side of supporting terror and genocide. That is the way of perpetual war, and the arabs in Palestine have made the choice. [Emphasis mine-SW]
The problem for any Western Democracy is how to come to terms with just such a situation.
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