The New York Times has an AP report this morning which offers helpful clarity to the current Israeli campaign against the Palestinian quasi-state:
Hamas Official: Talk of Swap 'Premature'
A Hamas official described Israel's detention of dozens of lawmakers from the group as hostage-taking but would not say whether it would be willing to turn over an Israeli soldier for their release.
''It is premature to discuss this matter,'' Osama Hamdan told The Associated Press, noting that Israel has not officially stated its intentions. ''If the Israelis want to trade them (the Hamas politicians) for the soldier then let them say it frankly and then we will react.''
Hamdan, who is close to Hamas' top leadership, insisted that the case of the Israeli Corporal Gilad Shalit who Palestinian militants are holding and the Hamas politicians were different.
''He's an Israeli soldier, a prisoner of war, taken in a battle and falls under a legal category,'' Hamdan said of Shalit. ''What happened yesterday were hostage-takings and acts of terrorism.'' [Emphasis mine-SW]
Hamas has never really denied that they are at war with Israel, but has done just the bare minimum of obfuscation to allow much of the press and many Western governments to fantasize that they were ready to become a true governing body and negotiate peace with Israel. The kidnapping of Gilad Shalit, as terrible as it is for him and his loved ones, provides a moment of clarity which the Israelis have seized to good advantage.
Since Hamas admits that Shalit is a prisoner of war, taken in battle, there is no ambiguity left. Israel's military response is perfectly reasonable and acceptable. It is not a coincidence that most of the European governments (except France, of course) are maintaining a studied silence. Even the normally reliable Kofi Annan has refrained from doing anything more than making a perfunctory request for restraint.
Hamas now has the war they want and need, but it is not so clear that they know what they have provoked. All reports suggest that the Hamas leadership in Damascus, Khalid Mashaal, ordered the kidnapping of Shalit. In the logic of extremism, no Hamas leader in the territories can now recommend surrender to the Israelis. In other words, since Hamas won't sue for peace, Israel has essentially a free hand, at least for a short while. As long as Israel primarily destroys infrastructure, arrests Hamas/Fatah, et al members, and avoids killing civilians, all of which so far they have been doing with exceptional diligence, the invasion can continue until many Israeli objectives can be reached.
I do not pretend to know what the Israeli high command has in mind, but would be surprised if any Kassam factories exist in Gaza when they finally withdraw.
The AP story also quotes Hamdan with this helpful note:
Hamdan also asserted that Hamas and the Syrian government would not be intimidated by the Israeli warplanes. Israel said the fighter jets buzzed President Bashar Assad's residence early Wednesday as a message to pressure Damascus to urge the militants to release the Israeli. Damascus said its anti-aircraft defenses fired on planes that flew near Syria's Mediterranean coastline.
''Experience has shown that this kind of pressure will be futile with the Syrians or with us,'' Hamdan said of the Israeli flights.
The Palestinians shame-honor culture does not allow them to admit to being intimidated; it would be too humiliating. Thus, their own bravado leads to disaster for them.
Furthermore, if these claims are confirmed, all bets are off:
Gaza militants say fired chemical-tipped warhead
A spokesman for gunmen in the Gaza Strip said they had fired a rocket tipped with a chemical warhead at Israel early on Thursday.
The Israeli army had no immediate comment on the claim by the spokesman from the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an armed wing of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement.
The group had recently claimed to possess about 20 biological warheads for the makeshift rockets commonly fired from Gaza at Israeli towns. This was the first time the group had claimed firing such a rocket.
"The al-Aqsa Brigades have fired one rocket with a chemical warhead" at southern Israel, Abu Qusai, a spokesman for the group, said in Gaza.
An Israeli military spokeswoman said the army had not detected that any such rocket was fired, nor was there any report of such a weapon hitting Israel.
The single most powerful defensive weapon the Palestinians have had, has been their ability to maintain deniability of terrorist acts done in their name. This has always forced the Israelis to react with minimal force for fear of being attacked as an outlaw nation exercising collective punishment, a charge that has a particular resonance for the Jewish state. By removing that deniability and proclaiming their responsibility for an act of war committed by one state against another, the Palestinians have opened themselves up to Israel's overwhelming response.
Only through such clarity will the conflict ever come to an end.
Recent Comments