I had planned to write a post today addressing the assertion by Carter National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski that "we are not at war," but after TomCS laid out his argument for calling our present difficulties a "police action", Ben and Jimmy J thoughtfully did my work for me (better than I could have argued) and explained why this struggle should indeed be thought of as a war. Please take the time to peruse their comments and add whatever perspective you would like to the discussion. Not surprisingly, I think we are in the middle of this war, a war which was openly declared in 1979 when the Iranian "students" took over the American embassy in Tehran (an act of war under any definition), and I think there is good reason to suspect that the next stage in the shooting war is rapidly approaching; furthermore, the timing of the next major engagement will have crucial significance.
The last time I discussed Iran and the inevitability of a violent confrontation, I put a 5 year time-line as the outside probability for the climactic stage in the Iranian war against the West; yesterday, Amir Taheri offered some details that suggests that time-line was overly optimistic. In IRAN'S (COSTLY) WAR ON AMERICA, he comments:
Washington's refusal to recognize the Khomeinist regime as a legitimate member of the international community has cost Tehran dearly. For almost three decades, Iran has been shut out of the global capital market and prevented from normal access to the fruits of scientific and technological progress. The Islamic Republic's persistent economic failure must, at least in part, be imputed to the U.S. boycott.
Nowhere is the cost of the so-called "War against the Infidel" more apparent than in Iran's oil industry. Projections made in 1977 envisaged the Iranian oil off-take to reach a daily capacity of 6.5 million barrels, with another 1.5 million available as emergency reserves. The capacity of the Kharg terminal, the chief export facility for Iranian oil, was increased from 5.5 million barrels a day to 8 million.
But lack of investment, and the virtual impossibility of accessing highly complex technology, has meant a steady decline. Today, the Islamic Republic produces something like 3.8 million barrels a day - a level Iran had surpassed in 1973.
Worse still, Iran has become an importer of petroleum products. Because the Islamic Republic failed to build enough refining capacity, it is now forced to secure nearly half of the nation's needs in gasoline and special fuels through imports. So nearly 30 percent of Iran's income from oil exports is spent on imports of petroleum products.
Iran's gas industry is in even poorer shape. Projections made in 1977 saw Iran emerging as the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas by the year 2000. Iran owns the second-largest deposits of natural gas in the world, after Russia, almost 20 percent of the global reserves. Yet it is importing natural gas from Turkmenistan to feed the country's only gas-turbine power station (at Neka on the Caspian Sea).
Like most autocracies and kleptocracies, Iran's Mullahs depend for their survival on the willingness of their security forces to ruthlessly kill and torture their internal opponents. As long as the population is kept in a state short of absolute desperation and the security forces are paid, the Mullahs will survive. The restive Iranian populace, ~50% of whom are not Persian Shia, are currently more frightened of the near danger (the Mullah's Basij) than of the far danger (an American or Israeli air attack.)
Iran's economy is failing; the only sure thing they have is Oil and that is failing; this is not a recipe for a stable country in the long run.
The best outcome for the near future would be that the Mullahs fall before we have to take the next step. This requires that they are still several years away from having deliverable nuclear weapons. The worst possible outcome would be an Iranian "12th Imam" option. If the Mullahs possess any nuclear weapons and their regime is endangered or begins to topple, there is almost no chance that they would refrain from using their nukes to trigger wide spread Armageddon. This is the night mare scenario.
We are already seeing the "escalation" so common to pre-war periods. Prior to the outbreak of open hostilities, opposing societies marshal their resources, especially public opinion, and begin to flex their muscles.
Aksa Brigades threatens US, Europe
The Aksa Martyrs Brigades, the armed wing of Fatah, on Monday threatened to strike at US and European interests in response to international sanctions on the Palestinian Authority.
Credible threats against the Danish cartoonists
If you thought that the Cartoon Jihad was over, think again.*
Indeed, several European secret services are on the lookout for special Islamist commandos allegedly trying to kill the 12 Danish cartoonists involved in the Jyllands Posten Muhammad cartoons. Most probably, a European sleeper cell could be activated for that mission. Nonetheless, an entrance of dangerous Pakistani elements thru Turkey is envisioned.
Ex-Military Intelligence chief Ze'evi warns of impending world jihad 'tsunami'
(Former Military Intelligence chief Aharon) ... Ze'evi, speaking at a Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies conference in Tel Aviv University, said that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinijad has been overheard promising the "end of history in two or three years."
Ze'evi recommended that the Iranian threats be taken seriously, saying that Tehran will soon have nuclear warhead compatible surface-to-surface missiles with a range of 5,000 kilometers, putting Europe within striking distance.
Ze'evi also warned that Israel should not rule out the possibility of a conventional war against Islamic militants.
Ze'evi said he foresees this war breaking out on Israel's northern frontier, against Syria and Hezbollah.
Democracies tend to be pretty inept at this kind of thing, and the West has in many ways preemptively disarmed itself (on the "information war" front) in the run up to the confrontation with Iran; much of the Media, Academic elites, and all too many politicians are all too willing to appease the enemy.
Ayaan Ali Hirsi's Dutch Citizenship Revoked
Immigration Minister Rita Verdonk’s ruled that Hirsi Ali was never a legal citizen of the Netherlands in the first place and revoked her citizenship.
Rolling Over the Low Countries: The Islamist Takeover of Europe
... Dhimmitude 'sticks' because of the many fear-compliance reactions of Dhimmi peoples enforcing subjugation on one another. Consider that for a moment. Then think again about the Nazi (and other totalitarian) parallels. For anyone unfamiliar with the term Dhimmi ... we'd strongly encourage ten minutes of Googling on the subject. It is frightening to behold, yet it's a term that - like it or not - we will all need to know in coming years. Not surprisingly, the Wikipedia entry on the term reminds us of a high-scoring basketball game: from one end of the court to the other, depending on when you happen to look.
John Batchelor reviews what happened the last time the world decided to try appeasement instead of taking our enemies at their word. Hitler could have been stopped; German officers were ready and willing to take action, but no one was ready to respond:
The Iran Threat: Sinister Summer
The next day, Kleist repeated the offer to the then marginalized, Cassandra-like Winston Churchill. War is unavoidable, Kleist said. If England stands up to Hitler now, we will put him in an insane asylum. Kleist begged for an official letter from the British cabinet to use to rally the wavering German general staff.
Churchill listened bleakly, knowing that the cabinet would not take the risk of negotiating with traitors, knowing also that the British public would not suffer a confrontation with Germany. Churchill did send an unofficial secret letter to the chief of the plotters back at Berlin, the mysterious, doomed Admiral Canaris; it was gloomy, fatalistic, and prescient about the likelihood of war.
"It is difficult for the democracies in advance and in cold blood to make precise declarations but the spectacle of an armed attack by Germany upon a small neighbor and the bloody fighting that will follow will rouse the whole British Empire and compel the gravest decisions," Churchill wrote.
Cassandra's great curse was to be able to foretell the future and never be believed.
For those of you who think that the Iranian Mullahs are relatively similar to us, that we can appreciate how they think, and they can be deterred just like the Russians were deterred for so many years, please read this excellent post at The Augean Stables, Honor-Shame: Comments on Dr. Sanity (long). In the post, there is a point made that because Islam has not struggled through its own reformation, it is stuck in a position from which it cannot extricate itself:
The “hi-jacking” of monotheism by honor-shame concerns is not unique to Islam, although unlike Christianity, Islam has yet to emerge from it. (It’s when Christianity emerges from it in the course of the last two or so centuries that democracy first emerged.) If you believe that a) your religious truth is proved by its visible superiority (i.e., your religious tradition has honor and the others have shame), so that b) your God is honored by your dominion, then your monotheism will be intolerant, imperialist, and claim a monopoly on salvation (i.e., everyone needs to be “us” in order to be saved).
Our efforts in Iraq, among many other factors, has been designed to allow the people of the Middle East some breathing room in which to start their efforts at Reformation; sadly most of the Muslim world has been very slow to take up the "offer" and the Western appeasement of Islamists that is occurring in Europe as well as our own difficulty ending the Sunni terror in Iraq, have set back the prospects of a timely maturation of the interpretation of Islam that is our best hope of avoiding catastrophe.
Unfortunately, the time-line of 2-3 years that we have is hardly likely to be sufficient time for such extensive re-thinking and the nature of the Honor-Shame dynamic makes it impossible for the Islamists to back away from the precipice. The entire post at The Augean Stables is very much worth careful perusal as it extends some of the ideas touched upon in the Honor-Shame post by Dr. Sanity that should be required reading by anyone who wants to understand the cultural pathology of our enemies.
*The Danish cartoon Intifada may be heating up again quite soon, in an unlikely place.
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