Yesterday I wrote that the key divide in this country is between those who do not believe we are at war, or if they credit our enemies with waging war on us, do not believe that it is a war we can lose, versus those of us who do, indeed, think we are at war and have a non-trivial risk of losing. I thought it might be useful to suggest a possible future-history scenario in which we lose WWIV.
Before describing the scenario, however, it is necessary to define what it would mean to lose this war. I would define losing WWIV as the world turning away from open inquiry and individual freedoms, toward totalitarianism, with attendant stagnation of technological development, and the reversal of the trends toward liberal democracy and market economies. Included would be a diminution of the world's wealth and increases in impoverishment and all the other ills that mankind is heir to. With America removed from the role as world's policeman, more and more of the world will come to resemble the dysfunctional states of the Muslim world; failed states will become the rule rather than the exception, with large parts of the world returning to a Hobbesian condition, with brutal war lords and totalitarian Islamic fascists dividing the spoils. The chaotic resiliency of the West and the forward movement of history will reverse, as the West slides into decadence or worse. That is what losing this war means, even beyond the individual deaths from emboldened tyrants.
First, in the interest of clarity, I am not a proponent of multi-culturism; I believe that some cultures are better than others.
Specifically, I believe that cultures that are broadly defined as Judeo-Christian in origination and orientation work better at creating wealth and bettering the lives of their people than collectivist, tribal, or Islamist cultures. Furthermore, I believe the world has become such a complex environment supporting so many people that the only way to maintain our development, rescue our overly stressed environment, and safeguard the human race is through continuing development of technologies that allow us to utilize energy and materials more efficiently; only in such ways will we will able to preserve irreplaceable raw materials, living creatures, and habitats. The nations that maximize their human intellectual capital best tend to be those that reward open inquiry and free markets.
During most of my lifetime, the battle was between an ideology that stifled people's creativity and stunted their lives; the war against Communism was a long one and was only sometimes "hot." The current enemy that strives to stifle creativity and stunt our lives is Islamic fascism. This war will be a long one and only sometimes will be "hot" but it must be fought just as assiduously.
In the short to medium term, losing does not necessarily mean that Shariah law is instituted in the United States, though that would certainly be incontrovertible evidence that we have lost. I think we can lose in many other ways, smaller but in the long run just as deadly; in the next 5-10 years, losing the war would include any of these possibilities:
1) Europe descends into chaos or surrenders to Shariah.
2) Tel Aviv is destroyed by a nuclear weapon and/or the state of Israel is effectively destroyed.
3) Western nations descend into chronic recession and depression because the price of oil reaches unbearable heights.
4) The United States surrenders to isolationism and abandons Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.
5) The worst case scenario is one in which the United States ceases to be a functioning Democratic Republic after a series of attacks which kill enough and terrify enough.
[Note that while #5 occurring within the next 5-10 years is the least likely scenario, if any of the #1-4 options come to fruition, all are merely precursors to #5, and make the ultimate outcome much more likely.]
Put yourself into the mind of an Iranian Mullah: You are awaiting the return of the 12th Imam and believe you have a 5-10 year window in which to either destroy America's will to fight or precipitate Armageddon. You appreciate that your hold on power is somewhat tenuous, though you are not really in immediate danger, and your intelligence services tell you that American and Israeli agents are organizing and fomenting ethnic and tribal animosities which will be hard to contain; here too, you are given a 5 year window beyond which your hold on power will be at risk. How can you best spend your 5 years in order to bring about your goals, which form a hierarchy:
1) Attain hegemony over the world's oil supplies so that you can effectively re-institute the Caliphate with Iran at the center.
2) Failing #1, how can you create conditions for the return of the 12th Imam, whose return will be facilitated by global Armageddon.
Tomorrow I will present my scenario for how we can lose this war in the worst possible way, well within the 5-10 year window. The rhetoric coming out of Iran suggests that the window is actually quite a bit smaller than I project, and they may help us by precipitating confrontation prematurely (from the point of view of maximizing their success). Another thing to keep in mind is that while I believe the Iranian Mullahs would prefer their option #1, if their hold on power is seriously threatened, I have few illusions that they will refrain from a "Samson" option. After all, Malignant Narcissists literally do not believe the world is worth existing without them in it.
Recent Comments