Islam is splitting in front of our eyes. This split is not primarily between Shia and Sunni, or between Arab and Persian and non-Arab Islam, or any of the other variations of Islam we read about. The split, which is already accelerating, is between those who accept Islam as a totalitarian system controlling all behavior (commonly referred to as Islamofascists) and those who aspire to an Islamic version of liberal democracy (Moderates).
Islam is closing in on a "Forced Choice." Psychologists use "Forced Choice" exams to do just what the term implies; they force the person in question to discover for themselves and for the tester what their bottom line beliefs are. An example for a Muslim-American citizen living in the United State, would be: Do you consider yourself to be an American first or a Muslim first? A "forced choice" does not allow for a non-answer; it is either-or and must be answered. Conditions are rapidly developing that are presenting the Muslim world with a forced choice: Are you going to be Moderate members of the Modern World or are you going to be radical members of a reactionary sect? Answer the question...NOW!
Captain Ed believes that the cartoon wars have exposed the Muslim world as already making their choice:
In fact, most Muslim journalists who have criticized the response to the cartoons find themselves either in jail or facing arrest, and the article itself provides a very telling look into why. The isolation and persecution of these journalists show that the riots and demonstrations represent mainstream Islam, despite the multicultural pablum given by most pundits over this eruption. Friends and relatives of these reporters remain silent for fear of violent retribution. A significant moderate faction within Islam has been cowed into almost-complete silence by the ascendant violent and radical factions.
He takes my position that Western appeasement, by government and by the MSM, is extraordinarily counter-productive:
Further appeasement of the latter means that the moderates will only lose more ground. The Islamists who exploited the cartoons to generate political capital for themselves have won a tremendous victory, and those Muslims who may have been on the fence before this issue will no doubt find themselves drawn to the faction with the most momentum. One measure of this victory has been the reticence of the Western media, especially the American media, to even show the cartoons to its readers before condemning them as offensive.
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This acquiescence is not helping moderate Muslims to take control. It cedes the center ground to the Islamists and encourages them to make ever-increasing demands on the West for submission. As long as they keep winning those battles, the moderates do not stand a chance.
[Note that I am not glossing over the differences between Shia and Sunni or between Arab and Persian. My point is that operationally and phenomenologically, the Islamic States exist as bitter and hated rivals at the same time that, facing a common enemy, they are deadly allies. They know the greatest danger to their version of Islam is Western style freedom and development and both are well versed in conducting asymmetric warfare and are perfectly capable of being "partners of convenience."]
Among the places where the conflict between Religious or Totalitarian Islam and Moderate or Secular Islam is most acute are Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Iraq; all are trying to deal with the current crisis in their own way; the omens are not good.
Turkey has attempted to "square the circle" between Islamism and democracy. They have hesitated to push their agenda too far because the Turkish military has been and remains a force for secularization. This is not likely to be a stable arrangement indefinitely. Jim Geraghty has been a strong supporter of Turkey, yet he is worried:
For a good long while, I had a sense of optimism. Turkey had its problems, but seemed to have found a way to get Islam and a secular democratic state to coexist, and maybe could be something of a role model for the entire Middle East.
Or maybe not; in the past few weeks we've seen plenty of demonstrations in which the Danish prime minister has been burned in effigy with a hat that has a convenient Jewish star. We've seen the Prime Minister call for limits on freedom of speech, we've seen a murder of a priest, and assault on other Christian clergy, and stones thrown at a Turkish woman journalist for not wearing a headscarf.
The best selling book in Turkey is Mein Kampf and the hottest movie is a blockbuster starring Billy Zane and Gary Busey, Valley of the Wolves:
In the most expensive Turkish movie ever made, American soldiers in Iraq crash a wedding and pump a little boy full of lead in front of his mother.
They kill dozens of innocent people with random machine gun fire, shoot the groom in the head, and drag those left alive to Abu Ghraib prison where a Jewish doctor cuts out their organs, which he sells to rich people in New York, London and Tel Aviv.
Valley of the Wolves Iraq, set to open in Turkey on Friday, feeds off the increasingly negative feelings many Turks harbor toward their longtime NATO allies: Americans.
The fact that this is despicable, anti-Semitic and anti-American, far more offensive than some rather mild cartoons, is irrelevant; the fact that it suggests that a Moderate Islamic ally of ours is slipping into the abyss is important.
Pakistan has been fighting a double war for quite some time now. They have allowed the Islamists to range relatively freely in the tribal area but have been willing to crack down in limited doses when threatened. As a result, Pervez Musharraf's high wire balancing act is essentially the only thing preventing a nuclear armed Pakistan from falling into chaos and Islamism. How long he can continue to walk the tightrope is anyone's guess; his fall would be catastrophic.
Indonesia has its own history of anti-Christian bigotry and violence which most of the world has chosen to forget; it is, of course, possible that most people never knew that the fighting over East Timor was religious and ethnic at its core. Chalk up another dubious victory of obfuscation by the MSM. And for those who think I am too harsh on the MSM, the pattern is repeating:
Nigerians Rampage with Machetes After Koran is Desecrated
Nigeria confirms that 35 persons were killed, 30 churches and five hotels were also burnt in violence the past three days.
For the third day in a row, Nigerian Muslims rampaged through the streets leaving 13 dead on Monday in Bauchi after at least 25 reported deaths in two previous days of violence.
It should be noted for the record that the Nigerian Muslims began their rampage before the rumors of Koran desecration were spread and in response to the cartoon imbroglio.
I mention these various troubles in Moderate Muslim countries to point out that Muslim communities around the world are being manipulated and pushed toward choosing sides in the battle and there has been almost no help to the Moderate communities to resist the pressure.
Now a new test case has presented itself, where again, the possibility of this becoming another question on a "Forced Choice" test is real. The Port Deal that has evoked such bipartisan condemnation is perfectly designed to push the Muslim world toward the radical position. If the United States backs away from the deal with a storm of "Islamophobic" reactions, it can only increase the polarization that evokes a "Forced Choice." Countries which have chosen Radical Islam include Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, ans Yemen. The UAE may be "in play" and rejecting the deal will almost certainly push them into the radical camp. We should think very carefully before rejecting this deal. AJ Strata, in Port Deal Short Sightedness Runs Amok, has some important thoughts about this; Charlie Munn suggests some additional excellent reasons for more caution and less haste.
The forces of radicalization have many friends. The obvious supporters are those who send them money, who have insinuated themselves throughout the West, and have long been established in the Arab world. The are like the Hydra with tendrils everywhere. Dymphna wrote about the unraveling of one "charitable" network yesterday in Kind Hearts and Jihad Bombs, and links to a long exposition (which she excerpts at length):
Of course, KindHearts [An Islamic charity-front-SW] has been under suspicion for awhile. The Militant Islam Monitor has been outing this organization for awhile, with headlines like this:
Kind Hearts for Terror : Arab American Chamber of Commerce helps 'charity' tied to Al Qaeda with Islamist fundraisers tied to Jihad recruiting
And here’s the trail they follow, from Pipes’ site in December last (have you noticed that Islamofascist news can be updated but it never really staledates? You just change names and amounts. The narrative remains the same).
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Well, that was in December. Now, two months later, Kind Hearts’ assets have been frozen and their doors padlocked. Maybe it's no longer so amusing?
What is amazing is the way all these insidious people are connected to one another and when you trace the red thread allllll the way back, where do you end up?
Why, Dorothy, look! First we were in Toledo and now here we are right in downtown Riyadh! Now how do you suppose that happened?
Islam is under tremendous pressure and the Islamofascists are winning. The Moderate Muslims are unable or unwilling to confront their violent and vicious coreligionists, some significant percentage are basically in agreement that all non-Muslims are inferior, and there is no tradition of democracy or self-governance to fall back on.
Charlie Munn raises a question that is slowly and surely being answered by the events on the ground, throughout the Muslim world, when he writes that Time May be Running Out for Moderate Muslims. After recounting the multitude of occasions in the last 30 years the United States has intervened militarily in order to rescue Muslim communities, he wonders if we are getting ready to say, "Enough!" And he points out that when that happens, the result for Muslim Moderates will not be salutary:
The rest of the world is not as “nice” as America has been, and I fear the Muslim community may soon find out that letting extremists be their voice is exactly the same problem the German community had in 1939. When total war came to Germany, it wasn’t directed at the leadership, it was directed at everyone and fought at the expense of civilian lives. If total war comes to the Muslim world- which could very well happen should a few nukes go off somewhere coupled with some fatwas- the past could repeat itself with a vengeance.
Iraq remains the central front in the current internecine fighting between the two views of Islam and deserves its own post on the shape of the battle taking place there. Another front is Europe, where the Islamists are winning not only because of the apathy and/or support of their coreligionists but in large part because of the timidity of the Europeans. Finally, the battle is importantly being fought, as all asymmetrical wars are, in the pages and on the screens of the Western MSM, which seem to be doing their best to support the cause of the Islamic fundamentalists in ways which I hope to show in the next few days. It has been said that the military always prepares to fight the last war; I would amend that to say that the MSM has been covering, and fighting, the last war and are completely missing the most critical issue of the war as a result.
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