Hamas has apparently won a significant victory in the Palestinian voting and will be forming the next government. This has been almost universally depicted as a disaster for the "peace process" and for the Middle East.
It is understandable that the election of Hamas will likely have an untoward effect on the current "Peace Process" in the short term; however, this betrays a misunderstanding of what a "Peace Process" actually is and how it can ever come to a successful conclusion.
Yesterday, in The Paradox of Liberalism in War Time, I referred to an article by Angelo M. Cordevilla, a professor of international relations at Boston University, called "The Logic of the Peace Process" in which he explored the difficulty the United States faced bringing about a peaceful solution to the Sunni vs Shia/Kurd civil war in Iraq. Cordevilla made the point that it is impossible to end a war until one side has been convinced it has lost.
The Palestinian conflict with Israel is a part, the optimists would suggest just a remnant, of a larger war of Islam against Israel, which started in 1948 before the ink was dry on the paper proclaiming the establishment of the state of Israel. The war is itself merely part of an even larger, longer term war of fundamentalist Islam against the kaffir. Whether you date this war from 9/11/2001, October 3, 1993, the 1979 hostage crisis with Iran, 1683 or 630, it is clear the conflict has been going on for quite some time.
The problem for the world in 2006 is that there is a significant segment of the Muslim population on the planet who have not come to an accommodation with their neighbors that involves treating them as equals. It is unclear if 10%, 40%, or 75% support a fundamentalist conception of Islam, but it is clearly a very significant number. To these believers, the Jihad against the infidel never ends.
Hamas is an Islamist party and supports, and is supported by, many other Islamist groups in the Muslim world. They are allied with Iran, allies of convenience with al Qaeda, and have relaitosnhips with all the "bad actors" in the Middle East. When >50% of the Palestinian voters support Hamas, they have earned the right to be taken seriously by all who support democratic moves in the world; clearly, Hamas represents the will of the Palestinian people. I find this very useful in clarifying the conflict.
SC&A has a compendium of quotes from Hamas which reveals the depth of their hatred and perfidy. It includes such gems as these:
From the Hamas Charter: "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it."
"The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgement Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up. "
"There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors."
And don't forget this charmer:
Hamas rallying cry, "Hamas, Hamas, Jews to the Gas!"
If your constitution can tolerate it, take a look
The history of the Israeli-Arab conflict, which began as a conflict between all of Arab Islam and Israel, is replete with calls for genocide from the Muslims. No one should be surprised when such calls continue to be uttered by spokesmen of Hamas (or Iran, for that matter.)
Captain Ed offers his understanding of the results:
They have chosen war and the annihilation of Israel over the two-state solution favored publicly (if not fervently) by Fatah. Europe and the United States need to wake up from their delusional dreamland of a situation where both sides in this conflict want a peaceful conclusion and a world without hatred for their children and grandchildren. Clearly, the Palestinians want war, and they have made no secret of using their children and grandchildren as bomb fuses in order to perpetuate it.
Captain Ed is correct as far as he goes, but what he neglects to mention is that this is not all that much of a change; the Palestinians have been choosing war for almost 60 years now. Alexandra, along with an excellent summary of the blogger reactions to the news, underlines the point:
The Palestinian elections have amounted to deciding which one of the terrorist parties the Palestinians will vote for. Which method of killing do the Palestinians prefer? Disgraceful.
She quite correctly reminds us that although Abbas was able to mouth the right platitudes, he was no more able or willing to disarm the terrorists than his mentor, Yassar Arafat, was. She further expects the Palestinians to soon begin fighting over the spoils of the "ancien regime"; time will tell.
Be that as it may, it comes down to this:
With Hamas running Palestine, they can choose to spend their time, money and energy creating a functioning state, which would then necessitate a de facto peace/cease fire with Israel, until such time as they are ready to deal directly with the state of Israel;
or
Hamas can choose to stay true to its Islamist roots, perhaps continue its current Hudna for a time, and then, as a necessary measure to release building tensions within the Palestinian territories, attempt more terrorism in Israel.
I doubt the leopard can change its spots (I am mindful of consider the scorpion and the frog), but certainly Israel will be fully prepared to observe what occurs and react accordingly. If offered peace, they will respond in kind, as they always have, though warily. However, at the same time, they will prepare for war. The fundamental difference is that if it comes to terror and war, Hamas has no presented Israel with a return address. That simple fact should clarify the situation for all concerned.
Toward the end of the first episode of Firefly, Captain Mal Reynolds offers Dr. Simon Tam, who has brought all sorts of unwelcome trouble to Serenity, a job as ship medic. Simon doesn't like or trust the Captain, who is a bit of a freebooter, and wonders aloud:
"How do I know you won't shoot me in the back when I'm asleep one night."
Simon doesn't yet know how straight forward Mal is; Mal responds:
"If I shoot you, you will be awake, you will be facing me, and you will be armed."
Simon is reassured and takes the job.
Hamas, fueled by their hatred, is now standing up, facing Israel, and is armed. This is far better than having them continue to be armed and hiding in ambush, waiting to shoot Jewish men, women, and children in the back while they are asleep.
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