This morning I had the opportunity to hear Imus interview Tom Friedman, who if memory serves me correctly, used to write for a legacy newspaper. Apparently, he is still around and available for pontification. Their discussion included a series of questions about Iraq, as that nation prepares to vote on the Constitutional referendum.
[During my drive into the city, I typically listen to NPR, switching to Imus when their stories are uninteresting or banal; most of the time, Imus's show is puerile, but he does have good guests (almost all from the left side of the political hemisphere) and his interviews are sometimes enlightening.]
I do not have a transcript but will try to reconstruct from memory:
Imus: So, what do you make of the Iraq mess; everyone knows its a disaster but they have this vote coming up.
TF: Incredibly enough, I think there is reason for some optimism. The Bush administration has done everything wrong in Iraq, but there is a chance the Iraqi people will be able to pull this off.
Imus is behind the curve on this one. "Everyone" apparently has known that Iraq is a mess, in his favorite formulation, aka a quagmire, another Vietnam, etc, but what is the LSM (LameStreamMedia) to do when the election comes off as a great success?
That voter participation will shame that of other democracies, including ours, is almost a foregone conclusion; even the Sunnis are registering and will be voting in large numbers.
This is from Q&A: Iraq's Constitutional Referendum, printed in the October 6, 2005 edition of Friedman's newspaper:
Is voter turnout expected to be high?
It's unclear. Fewer than 60 percent of all registered voters cast ballots in Iraq's January elections. But experts expect this referendum's voter turnout to be higher. Much of the turnout will hinge on whether Sunni Arabs boycott the vote, as they did during January's election. Sunni Arabs, who comprise roughly 20 percent of Iraq's population, form the majority in four of Iraq's eighteen provinces, but they are overwhelmingly the majority in only two: Anbar province, a heavily Sunni area west of Baghdad that stretches to the Syrian border, and Salahuddin, a province north of Baghdad. High registration numbers -- as high as 75 percent, Iraqi election officials say -- in Anbar and Salahuddin suggest that Sunni Arabs may not boycott the election but will vote against the document. Only 10 percent of eligible Sunni Arabs voted in January's parliamentary elections.
A word to the wise: do not be surprised if even the Sunnis show a majority in support of the Constitution. This would amaze readers of Tom Friedman's newspaper, but will be less of a surprise to those of us who find alternative sources of news. Most Sunnis realize the old regime, which was not universally loved even among the Sunnis, will not be coming back, and the best way to stop the terrorists and insurgents in Iraq is to join the political process.
Be prepared for the new paradigm, soon to appear in the LSM:
Iraq is a disaster, Bush has done everything wrong, but despite the monumental incompetence of the Bush administration, the positive outcome of the referendum proves that democracy is on its way, thanks to the pluck and luck of the Iraqi people.
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