Ever since Y2K proved to be a "disappointing" brush with "end times" I have wondered if and when we would see an upsurge in millennialism. Historically, as Europe approached the year 1000, Messiahs and millennial movements were springing up with regularity. I do not think people have become less religious since then (though for many sophisticated westerners, what is derided as religious irrationality has been replaced by pseudo-intellectual irrationality) and there have certainly been plenty of "end times" dogmas promulgated upon the masses. Current favorites would have to include Anthropogenic Global Warming (we have 20 years to reverse AGW or we are doomed), and the sentiment, which I have seen and heard repeatedly, that this election is the most important of our lifetime and that the election of John McCain or Barack Obama (depending on POV) would be the end of America as we know it.
It is difficult to know, while in the midst of passions and partisanship, whether these expressions are simply the usual dire rhetoric that is advanced in the run up to our National elections, but I wonder if there is something different this time around. Dinocrat captured my concern and posted an interesting question yesterday:
There continues to be something surreal about this year’s presidential campaign. Senator Obama was marketed as a Messiah from the one side, and on the other, Governor Palin was instantly and inappropriately viewed as some sort of Savior or Demon, wildly the best choice by McCain, or the worst VP choice in American history. What’s going on that people experience such intensity of feeling about mere politicians?
Political rhetoric has a long and illustrious pedigree of promising to solve all of our problems. Nations that are particularly troubled and anxious often fall victim to the demagoguery inherent in such formulations but in America we have been blessed with two parties that are able to offset each other's worst excesses of rhetoric and ideology. However, this election does have a different feel to it, in part because of the troublesome extreme reactions that have erupted on both sides in relation to their candidates. It leads me to wonder if this is a Millennial election?
In reality, no matter who is elected President, the United States will not fail; neither will the tides begin to recede or Peace miraculously break out in every nook and cranny of the world. Islamic terror will be with us for a long time to come, Russia will still use brute strength to assure what they consider their vital national interest (and we will not be bale to do much about it when the brutality occurs on their borders), China will still struggle with finding parameters for managing competition inside and outside their borders, Iran will continue to fund and support the most powerful anti-globalization forces; the world will persist and America will survive either candidate. So what is the source of the deep well of passion that has been tapped by Barack Obama and Sarah Palin? Perhaps the better way to phrase the question would be to ask, what are the particulars of the near existential angst that is fueling the passion for a Savior?
Millennialist movements typically arise in communities and societies which feel under great pressure. Variations on "end times" occur in most religions and periodically cross a threshold and emerge into the zeitgeist. An argument can be made that Islamic millennialism, embodied by al Qaeda and Iranian Khomeiniism, are reactions to the existential threat that modernity poses to traditional, tribal Islam.
For the West, the existential threats are evident but not generally clearly understood by the parties. The existential threats are internal more than external, at this time, but as is typical, both parties externalize the threats.
[Keeping in mind that my preference for the Republican ticket can certainly slant my perceptions, I see greater reasons for concern with the Democrats than the Republicans. Anyone who supports Barack Obama and can make a cogent case for concern about Republican millenialism is welcome to write in and explain their position. I have not seen such a discussion that extends any further than the simplistic assertion that (part of) the Christian right is millennialist and therefore will welcome or facilitate armageddon. Some evidence of end times beliefs effecting political policies would be helpful.]
For the Republican party, the existential threats are poorly defined but explain the reaction to Sarah Palin's candidacy. The Republicans severely damaged their brand by their behavior in Washington when they ran the government but the more important question for the future is whether or not the country still leans center right, or has moved center left in reaction to the Bush years. If the country has moved to the left, the Republican base, conservative politically, economically and culturally, faces the danger of many years in the political desert, with little hope of regaining power anytime soon. The election may or may not answer the question.
(The election will not answer the question if whoever loses simply finds a way to dismiss the results. For example, an Obama win could be spun as a repudiation of Bush and the Republicans' failure since 2000 to walk the walk; in that case Sarah Palin will be seen as the great hope to return the country to the right. On the other hand, a McCain victory has already been pre-spun as the result of American racism, which will lead the Democrats to redouble their identity politics rather than question their assumptions. Such spin will do long term damage to the respective parties; a landslide loss would be most helpful for the loser in that it would serve to force a re-evaluation.)
There are a few reasons that I do not see the Republican flirtation with messianism as quite so significant as the Democrats. For one thing, the Democratic model of a welfare state has been failing for a great many years. Overt socialism and communism have been thoroughly repudiated by history, but the European model of welfare statism is growing increasingly untenable, not least because societies that organize themselves around government facilitating personal gratifications tend to be unable to either reproduce or defend themselves. In reaction, the parties promise impossibilities. For example, Democrats promise universal health care, which we would all wish for, without a realistic appreciation of the limits of their models. (As noted here many times, universal health care equates to: universal, high quality, affordable; pick two out of three.) It is the difficulty tolerating the limits that are inherent in human beings and human endeavors that causes concern over the Democratic party's messianism.
Note that I do not believe that Islamic terror, Russian resurgence, or melting ice caps will destroy our way of life. I do not think either Barack Obama or John McCain will destroy America's promise, but I do think that we are living in an increasingly uncertain world, with the only certainty being that change will impact all of us in immediate ways. Uncertainty is always a source of anxiety; if I am unsure that my job and income will still exist in 6 months or 5 years, a sense of disquiet is unavoidable. For too many people, changing oneself is more frightening than looking to a Great Leader (a perfect parent) to protect and defend us.
There is, in addition, one more concern I have about the current (possible) millennialism. Whatever one's politics, even for Democratic partisans who loathe her politics, Sarah Palin comes across as quite genuine and well grounded. She is like so many women who take care of their families while holding down, and excelling, at their jobs.
(I would offer Mrs. SW as a prime example of the type; my daughter and daughter-in-law appear to be well on their ways to doing the same. What most amazes me is how effortless they make it seem.)
I very much doubt that Sarah Palin would let the adulation effect how she sees herself.
On the other hand, Barack Obama, who remains a bit of an enigma despite all of his time in the public eye, is a bit more worrisome. He veils his core (the worst case scenario is that he has a defective or absent core) and has not allowed much of a glimpse into his character; he wears a mask. His rhetoric often suggests that he believes some of his accolades. The charitable take on his comment that with his election we will begin to stop the tides from rising and start healing the planet is that he was swept along by the force of his rhetoric and the adoration of his audience and made a foolishly grandiose comment. The much more worrisome (albeit much less likely) take is that he actually believes what he said. If so, it would indicate a troubling lack of humility along with a poor grasp of the realistic limits of even the most powerful person.
On a related note, the comments of those who know the candidates best are revealing. Michelle Obama sees her husband's candidacy as the reason she can feel proud of America. This weights his candidacy with import and heft that would make it hard for any man to live up to the promise. Todd Palin, on the other hand, offers this revealing bit of humanity, courtesy of the Anchoress:
“If I’d had a crystal ball a few years ago, I might have asked a few more questions when Sarah decided to join the PTA. It wouldn’t have mattered, though; when my wife starts talking about reform, corruption and making government work for the people, it’s just best to get out of the way.” Video here
Michelle Obama depicts her husband as an icon; Todd Palin, with tongue firmly planted in cheek, sees his wife as merely a person.
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