There are too many things to cover these days so I thought I'd simply post a brief sense of what I have been reading and suggest you take a look yourself.
Signs of the looming Singularity
Human stem cells used to cure brain disorder:
The treatment uses human glial progenitor cells — cells that can differentiate into the glial cells that, among other things, make up myelin. Myelin, a protein that insulates the long 'arms' of nerve cells, called axons, helps the conduction of neural signals throughout the nervous system.
The bad news, this was in mice; the good news, once we have such a proof of concept, human applications will follow.
Rodney Brooks thinks (as do I) that the most likely scenario for the emergence of AGI (artificial general intelligence) is an eventual symbiotic merger/condominium of biology and technology:
I argue that an artificial intelligence could evolve in a much different way. In particular, I don't think there is going to be one single sudden technological “big bang” that springs an AGI into “life.” Starting with the mildly intelligent systems we have today, machines will become gradually more intelligent, generation by generation. The singularity will be a period, not an event.
...
But I expect the AGIs of the future—embodied, for example, as robots that will roam our homes and workplaces—to emerge gradually and symbiotically with our society. At the same time, we humans will transform ourselves. We will incorporate a wide range of advanced sensory devices and prosthetics to enhance our bodies. As our machines become more like us, we will become more like them.
Robin Hanson takes a fascinating look at the Economics Of The Singularity:
The world economy, which now doubles in 15 years or so, would soon double in somewhere from a week to a month.
I knew the world was getting richer, but doubling in 15 years? That is remarkable and a fact that has been lost on most people who only note the rising price of energy and food.
On to politics
Tom Barnett, as is his wont, underlines the positive spin on our possibly accelerating confrontation with Iran in Waiting on this one long enough: Ahmadinejad chastised by clerics:
Ahmadinejad's beliefs are an odd mish-mash, by traditional Shiia standards, and his politicizing of them is becoming an increasing source of political friction with clerics who consider him a weak leader who has not delivered on campaign promises and instead covers himself in their religious authority.
Yet another example of how Ahmadinejad loses standing at home while mesmerizing a wobbly West.
Thomas Sowell is less sanguine about Iran and contrasts Obama and McCain in their approach to foreign policy:
There is one big difference between now and the 1930s. Although the West's lack of military preparedness and its political irresolution led to three solid years of devastating losses to Nazi Germany and imperial Japan, nevertheless when all the West's industrial and military forces were finally mobilized, the democracies were able to turn the tide and win decisively.
But you cannot lose a nuclear war for three years and then come back. You cannot even sustain the will to resist for three years when you are first broken down morally by threats and then devastated by nuclear bombs.
I wish I were as certain as Tom Barnett that Iran wold never use a bomb, but I have doubts; further, historically, anti-Semitism has always caused those who were infected by it to succumb to madness; why should Iran be any different? I do know that the best way to stop Iran is to offer a credible threat of a military attack; I don't think they see Obama as credible when he threatens to keep the use of force on the table. For more on a credible threat, see Mark Pyruz, who links to, and quotes from, the PDF of Details of a Potential Attack on Iran:
"Military action must be viewed as a component of a comprehensive strategy rather than a stand-alone option for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. But it is an element of any true option. A true option is a complete strategy integrating political, economic, and military elements and seeing the matter through to a defined and achievable end. For any military element, the sequel to action must be part of the strategy because the military action by itself will not finish the problem of Iran’s nuclear ambitions once and for all. Airstrikes on the Iranian nuclear program or other targets could conceivably reset the diplomatic table in pursuit of a negotiated end to the nuclear program, but they could also easily overturn the diplomatic table."
For more on Obama's fecklessness, Dinocrat questions whether Barack Obama may be The Left’s Elmer Gantry?
We have to say that we find certain aspects of Senator Obama’s appeal to his disciples very disturbing. He is not at all “inscrutable to critics” — rather, he is the fellow who has the most liberal voting record in the Senate. And by the grandiosity of the way he talks about himself above, he resembles nothing less than perhaps a liberal version of the Elmer Gantry type that the MSM have so ridiculed in recent years.
He offers examples. Meanwhile, Siggy points out rather cogently that Obama's sincerity is open to question in another area, as is Obama's assessment of what ails us; see Obama And The Middle Class He Pretends To Care About, Part Two:
This is what Barack Obama believes, that social disparities are mostly rooted in an inherently flawed economic dynamic. What Mr Obama and others (including Hillary Clinton, albeit less sos) refuse to acknowledge is that social disparities exist because our economic dynamic is nothing more than a mirror that reflects the current social realities- not the least of which is that we are not all the same.
On to the Middle East
While al Jazeera notes that Arabs (are) shocked by Obama speech, the Persians remain optimistic about his possible Presidency, perhaps choosing to believe his past words more than his more recent words to AIPAC:
Obama also had harsh words for Iran, vowing to work to "eliminate" the threat it posed to security in the Middle East and around the globe.
"There's no greater threat to Israel or to the peace and stability of the region than Iran," he told the Aipac assembly.
Calling for "aggressive, principled diplomacy" with Tehran, he also warned he would never take the military option off the table in guaranteeing US and Israeli security.
Iranians responded cautiously, but optimisticly, with officials expressing hope he can bring about change in Iran-US relations.
Hamidreza Hajibabaee, member of Iranian parliament, said: "We hope that Obama turns his words into actions, helps the Islamic Republic of Iran believe that the US has given up enmity and paves the way for fair negotiations."
For a bit of unintentional humor, consider why the United Nations Committee on NGOs is threatening to strip the World Union of Progressive Judaism of the observer NGO status it has held since 1972. What was the World Union's egregious offense, you wonder:
'Insult' may cost Reform Jews UN status
Cuba requested the revocation of the union's status following a Human Rights Council session in Geneva in January titled "Human Rights Violations Emanating from Israeli Military Incursions in the Occupied Territories," where, in protest at the session's exclusive focus on Israel, World Union representative David Littman tried to read passages from the Hamas charter calling for the destruction of Israel.
Littman was interrupted three times by the presiding officer on the grounds that Hamas's ideology was not the topic before the council. Before he took his seat, Littman told the presiding officer that "something is rotten in the state of this council."
This statement led to complaints largely from Muslim countries that the UN had been insulted by the Reform representative. The World Union was informed of the initiative at the NGO committee last Thursday, and given a week to prepare its response.
In a truly droll understatement, the article concludes that prospects are bleak for the World Union:
But the World Union's prospects are uncertain. Sudan chairs the committee, which also includes Pakistan, Cuba, Egypt, Angola and Qatar. Committee members whom the World Union representatives hope to sway to their side include Burundi, China, Columbia, Dominica, Guinea, India, Peru, Romania, Russia and Turkey. The US, UK and Israel make up the last of the 19 members of the committee.
Finally, some possible unanticipated results of the current inflation in gas prices
Quiet possibly our most astute observer of the economic scene blogs as Maxed_Out_Mama, and has this to say about the future direction of our economy and the oil markets:
At this point I cannot say that the US economy has bottomed, but there are clearly positive influences controlling the rate of descent. What happens in the long term depends on whether the US does something dumb like imposing carbon taxes or cap and trade (completely insane, especially given the sun's lack of activity), and how other trading partners handle the economic headwinds.
Oil prices should be somewhat restrained going forward now that the Asian countries have begun to cut subsidies. The general trading trend is lower. Of course, one good hurricane in the right place, and speculation will drive the price sharply higher!
Two thoughts occur to me. First, if the United States were to only drill more, the price of oil would go down, yet with the benefit of high prices, our supplies should ease anyway; unfortunately, the horizon is at least five years out, but the fact remains that the current high prices mean that extracting oil at home makes sense. Westhawk makes the case:
The Bakken oil formation and national security
Should Bakken live up to this hypothetical potential, the economic and national security implications would be significant. Production from the Bakken formation could create a large positive swing in the U.S. balance of payments. This would open up decision-making flexibility for U.S. economic policymakers. And in the national security realm, future U.S. presidents would have more policy options available for their consideration as they contemplate problems such as Iran.
Long ignored, the Bakken formation is now the hottest development in U.S. domestic oil exploration. Will it be the next Saudi Arabia? That remains hard to say. But it would take a tremendous oil price crash to prevent Bakken from being a significant development.
The second point is that the rise in the global middle class which is putting so much pressure on oil prices is also putting upward pressure on other commodity prices, especially food prices. Now, there are lots of things people can do without; putting off the purchase of a new car may be painful but not disastrous; but food is in a different category. And that raises the easily answered question: Who are the most productive farmers in the world? For those who don't have time to look it up, the answer is: American farmers. I am not the only one who has noticed this:
Food Is Gold, So Billions Invested in Farming
Huge investment funds have already poured hundreds of billions of dollars into booming financial markets for commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans.
But a few big private investors are starting to make bolder and longer-term bets that the world’s need for food will greatly increase — by buying farmland, fertilizer, grain elevators and shipping equipment.
I continue to believe that the next President will be a one term president. High oil prices will not be coming down to (relatively) cheap levels for many years. New supplies will take at least 5 years to come to market. Even if we attack Iran and delay their nuclear ambitions, stability in that part of the world will remain elusive for a long while. Yet, unless our politicians commit truly monumental acts of stupidity (of which they are certainly capable) the President elected in 2012 may well come into office at a very auspicious time, with America reaping the benefits of our own Saudi sized oil fields, growing wealthy from selling high priced food to those who cannot raise it themselves (ie, Arabs, Persians, et al), and with a booming economy fueled by our own unique combination of commodity riches and the even vaster resources of our human capital as the ongoing technological revolution, perhaps the early days of the Singularity, bring greater wealth to all of us. The next five years are likely to be difficult but after that, watch out, we may well have lift-off.
If I were advising Hillary Clinton, I might just tell her that an Obama victory in November ruins her chances to ever be President but if things go right, 2012 is not only hers, but 2016 looks pretty good, too.
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