For Some People There Is No Bottom

Since the victory of Hamas in the mini-civil war in the Gaza strip, two memes have emerged to support what little optimism exists in the Middle East.

One idea suggests that the "Moderate" Palestinians, under the tutelage of Mahmoud Abbas and the "moderate" terrorists and corrupt thugs of Fatah, will be able to rule the West Bank.  The West, including Israel, for fear of replay of Gaza on the West Bank, will release millions of dollars in tax money and aid, Fatah will concentrate on improving the lives of the people of the West Bank, and Gaza will be allowed to descend into the Hell on earth that will convince the Palestinians that the path of moderation is the optimal route toward a state and Peace.

[The assumption that the Palestinians want Peace and a state apparently can survive almost any collision with reality.]

The second idea, related to the first, is that Hamas has been given a poisoned chalice and will find it impossible to rule Gaza; they will then be repudiated and found wanting by the Palestinians who, like their brethren on the West Bank, will come to realize that moderation and acceptance of the Jewish state are the only path available to them.

Both related ideas are based on a concept familiar to Psychiatrists who treat addictions.  It is a well worn trope that the alcoholic will only be able to overcome his denial when he has finally "hit bottom."  For any individual there is no way to know when the bottom has been reached, but once the person has suffered enough pain, they finally will come to their senses, recognize their addiction, and begin to take steps (12 steps, to be precise) that will lead them back to sobriety and happiness.

Doctors who work with alcoholics know that their best chance of helping their patients is to consistently repeat at every visit that the person has an alcohol problem, that it will not get better until they face their problem, and that they should start the process of dealing with their dependence as soon as possible.  Typically, alcoholics only come to their acceptance after significant pain.  Failed marriages and relationships, estrangement from families, lost jobs, financial ruin, all are often required before the alcoholic admits they have a problem.

The analogy to the Palestinians, and indeed to the Islamists, whether Shia or Sunni, is clear.

But there is a flaw in the concept.

Mr. A was a very successful, semi-retired, Wall Street trader with a beautiful wife, a former model, two adorable children, a large house, and several expensive cars, when he came for a consultation with a colleague of mine, at the request of his wife and Doctor.  He had been hospitalized 6 months earlier with a bout of Pancreatitis, a very painful, potentially fatal illness often brought on by a bout of heavy drinking.  After 3 weeks in the hospital Mr. A was discharged and referred to AA.  He went to a few meetings but did not think he had such a serious problem that the AA program was necessary.  Three months later, at a business dinner, Mr. A had a glass of wine.  He was considerably pleased that he could have "just one" and felt things were under control, despite his Physician's warnings that alcohol could be fatal for him, even in small amounts.  By the time of the consultation, he was drinking one or two glasses of wine nightly and the weekend just before the consolation had drunk enough Scotch to become intoxicated, though he minimized the impact of the alcohol.  Mrs. A was threatening to leave with the children and under duress, Mr. A came in.

He explained that he did not drink very much, was functioning quite well, and was only in because of his wife.  He did not believe that she would really leave.  He enjoyed having a glass or two of wine or Scotch and did not see anything wrong with doing so.  To a query about his episode of Pancreatitis, he responded that he was physically quite well, had begun working out three times a week and didn't see it as a problem.  When reminded of the warning that Alcohol could be life-threatening, he suggested that such a warning was merely a rhetorical device used by Doctors to scare their patients into complete sobriety; such a warning was not necessary for him.

Mr. A continued drinking and as is the tendency of alcoholics, his drinking worsened.  Mrs. A consulted with me several times while coming to terms with her husband's alcoholism.  She was frightened of the life style changes that would attend her leaving but feared for her health and her children's welfare if she continued living with a man who drank heavily and often drove with her and their children in the car.  She moved to her parent's house, with the children.

Within a year Mr. A had been re-hospitalized with a bout of severe Pancreatitis from which he did not recover.

Even at the cost of his family and his health, Mr. A was not able to confront his denial and begin the painful process of dealing with his dependence.  He died rather than face the humiliation and shame of acknowledging his damaged self.

Such is the final, fatal flaw in the Recovery model for the Palestinians and the Islamic world. 

Iran has been ruled by Islamists for 30 years and has been on the "brink of failure" for at least 5 years.  There is no evidence that their repression will be eased any time soon or that the government is about to fall to a popular uprising (though rigid and repressive states can and do fail with surprising rapidity.) 

The Palestinians have indulged their hatred of Jews and paranoid projection for almost 60 years.  They have enshrined a cult of death, raising their children on hate and the love of death.  They continue to value their Honor above their lives.

Optimism in the Middle East is almost never rewarded. 

For some people there is no bottom.