The Democratic leadership in Congress has determined we have lost the war in Iraq and imagine that they can leverage the American people's legendary impatience and relative ignorance to electoral victory in 2008. They may well prove to be correct in their assessment of the domestic political stakes involved in the ongoing turmoil in Iraq, but their positions on the war remain incoherent and evidence of serious ignorance of the nature, strategic thinking, and psychology of the enemy. Amir Taheri points this out today in Iraq: Who's Winning, Harry?
Reid claims that the war is lost and that the United States has already been defeated.
...
... Reid might have added to the confusion that has plagued his party over the issue from the start.
Because all wars have winners and losers, Reid, having identified America as the loser, is required to name the winner. This Reid cannot do.
...
It's possible that Reid imagined that his analytical problems are over simply because he has identified the war's loser. The truth is that his troubles are only beginning. He must tell Americans to whom they wish their army to surrender in Iraq.
Taheri goes on to point out that none of our enemies in Iraq, which include al Qaeda, ex-Baathists, and Iranian supported Shia Islamists, can be thought of as having "won" the war. Even if you imagine that Iraq is a lost cause and the chaos can only get worse, you are essentially committed to the position that one or the other, or perhaps all three, of our enemies will emerge victorious, after we have left the field.
To say that surrendering the front lines in such circumstances is irresponsible, is a tautology.
At this time, the sectarian violence has already diminished in the early days of the surge. Shia death squads have retreated, with Moqtada al Sadr hiding in Iran; Sunni tribes in Anbar are increasingly signing up with the coalition to oppose al Qaeda in Iraq, and al Qaeda is pouring the vast majority of their resources into the fight, properly recognizing the primacy of the Iraq theater of operations in their war against the West.
The effects of the Democrat's craven and cynical behavior on our enemies can already be seen in the recent upsurge in suicide attacks, the terror weapon of choice of a weak adversary.
There are two significant aspects to the current war that must be understood when considering the near term course of the war on Islamic terror.
Yesterday, on NPR Morning Edition, Steve Inskeep interviewed Professor Scott Atran, a professor at the University of Michigan and the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, who took part in a research study looking at a cluster of suicide bombers who all came from the town of Tetuan in Morocco. Douglas Farah described the interview on his blog yesterday:
A Fascinating Look At a Village That Produces Suicide Bombers
On NPR today, there is a fascinating story about research into a single neighborhood in the Moroccan village of Tetuan that has produced more than 30 suicide bombers, funneled to different parts of the world, primarily Iraq and earlier, to Spain.
The reporting provides not just insights into why these people kill themselves, but a disturbing look at the dangers of the growing criminal-terrorist nexus in different parts of the world. This includes groups specializing in crossing the U.S. border.
As researcher Scott Atran, a senior fellow at City University of New York’s Center on Terrorism notes, while there are tens of millions of people who sympathize with the concept of jihad, there are relatively few who actually carry out violent acts.
Douglass expands on his comments about the nexus of criminality and terrorism, and his post is well worth reading in full, but for purposes of understanding the effects of an American surrender in Iraq, his last comments are most salient:
Perhaps Atran’s most disturbing conclusion is that the concept of violent jihad is now part of of the political landscape and growing in its appeal across norther Africa.
Atran called jihad the “big dream out there now. There is a massive, media-driven political awakening of which jihad is the vanguard…At least in these young people’s minds, they are looking for a dream and they want to be heros.”
The full transcript is available for a modest fee; I will only reproduce a small part of it here:
Prof. ATRAN: Another factor is that the jihad is actually growing throughout North Africa. If you ask somebody why they joined the jihad, say, in Europe, they would give you the story that Islam is under attack. Okay, that’s the general idea. Then, you know, you ask them, well, if this was 10 years ago, would you have joined the jihad? And they say, of course not. The jihad wasn’t there. So, it’s in the landscape of ideas now.
INSKEEP: You mean, it’s in the news because of Israel, because of 9/11, because of Afghanistan and Iraq. And so they’re thinking about it in a way they might…
Prof. ATRAN: It’s the big dream out there now. I mean there’s a massive transnational media-driven political awakening in which the jihad in effect is the vanguard and the principal counterweight to the influence of the United States in the world, at least in these young people’s minds. And like young people everywhere, they’re looking for a dream and they want to be heroes. [Emphasis mine-SW]
Consider a disaffected, poorly educated young man, with few prospects, tantalized by the wonders of the Modern world, of which he can only taste crumbs, sexually frustrated and pre-occupied, rudderless, and facing a future of relatively bleak prospects. Traditionally such young men have been drawn into those venues which promise status, wealth, and women. Furthermore, one of the significant developmental aspects of adolescence and early adulthood is the incorporation of meaning into one's life. The idealism of the young is a powerful motivator and one of the reasons so many young people dabble with extremist ideology. Now, mix in the power of traditional societies and traditional Islam, with its emphasis on Jihad. All that is required to ignite the mixture is a connection between Jihad and glory, women and status. (The pursuit of wealth is obviated by the promise of great riches in the next life.)
The international media, which includes the internet and major media corporations, offer a bridge to connect the potential suicide bomber to his dreams. The left leaning Media, which finds it most parsimonious to fit the news into a quasi-Marxist template of victims and oppressors, has inadvertently fed the already present paranoia rampant in Muslim societies and supplied the evidence to support the notion that Islam is under assault by the West. This primes the explosive. The images broadcast on a nightly basis by Arabic (al Jazeera, et al) and Western MSM fuel the mixture and arouse the passions of the prospective bombers. Yet only a limited number are ready to become martyrs for a lost cause; that kind of commitment requires true believers. The best way to transform passive supporters of Jihad into active participants is to present the option of fighting for a winning cause, and this is what the Democrats propose to offer to tour enemies.
Osama bin Laden pointedly said that the Arab will follow the strong horse. Right now, al Qaeda is a weak horse, which is why they constantly strive to commit new terrorist atrocities. Spectacular attacks on their enemies, even if the enemies are primarily non-combatants, women, and children, are not only attempts to sap our will but are advertising campaigns for Jihad. Sadly there is a pool of marginal individuals and true believers to fuel Jihad for a long time to come but imagine the al Qaeda recruiting campaign when the Democrats surrender to them in Iraq.
We will all regret the Democrat's perfidy in surrendering out of venality and ignorance to a foe who wants only to force us to submit.
[Watch Hillary Clinton; she knows what we face yet is so desperate to become President that she wants only to pin the defeat for Iraq, and the disaster that will ensue onto President Bush; thus her insistence the troops be gone before she becomes President. At the same time she knows if we do what the Democrats are proposing , the next President's job will be exponentially more difficult. Unfortunately, her avarice is overwhelming her intellect at the moment. Whether or not Hillary can square the circle will be worth watching, especially since she may well end up as our next President.]
Recent Comments