It seems likely that the next two years will feature Congressional hearings meant to disguise the lack of ideas or plans from the Democratic side of the political spectrum for resolving any of our difficulties in the Middle East. There is enough residual Bush hatred from the left that the Democrats will have difficulty assisting him, as is evidenced by the decision of John Bolton to resign rather than suffer the ignominy of a losing Senate vote, yet there is also enough realism among those who desire a Democrat in the White House in '08 to recognize that losing in Iraq, if seen as caused by the Democrats, would be fatal to their chances. This is a prescription for stalemate and stasis. In normal times (if they ever exist) stasis and stalemate in Washington are not especially worrisome and are often to be preferred. However, when there is a war on, the calculation changes.
As I suggested in my post last week, the war in the Middle East is not about Iraq, it is about Iran (and the HISH Alliance/Hezbollah-Iran-Syria-Hamas.) Iran has an important election coming up next week which will tell us something about the public face that their regime will turn toward the West. If, as expected Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi wins the election, it bodes poorly for peace and tranquility in the Middle East. As Allahpundit described several weeks ago:
In a move that would push Iran even further into the diplomatic wilderness, Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, 71, who publicly backs the use of suicide bombers against Israel, is campaigning to succeed Grand Ayatollah Ali Khameini, 67, as the head of the Islamic state.
Considered an extremist even by fellow mullahs, he was a fringe figure in Iran’s theocracy until last year’s election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a fellow fundamentalist who views him as his ideological mentor…
The Jerusalem Post today suggests the Olmert government has essentially conceded that the Bush administration will not be able to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb:
'US won't order preemptive Iran strike'
Predicting Iran will obtain nuclear weapons by the end of the decade, the defense establishment's new and updated assessment for 2007 does not foresee the United States undertaking a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear installations, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
The chances of an American strike are deemed "low," according to assessments by the security establishment. Israel also believes that international diplomatic efforts to stop Iran will fail, security sources said.
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The assumption in the defense establishment is that even if sanctions were imposed on Iran today, they would not be effective in deterring the regime from continuing with its nuclear plans. The Democratic takeover of the US Senate and Congress has also led to the prediction that President George W. Bush will not be able to order a military strike.
In addition, the prediction is that Bush's administration is headed towards talks with Iran, expected to be one of the recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton report on America's options in Iraq to be presented to the US president on Wednesday.
The UN Security Council demanded in July that Teheran suspend enrichment, but Iran instead has expanded that work, recently setting up a second experimental chain of 164 centrifuges to produce small amounts of low-enriched uranium.
Teheran has said it intends to activate 3,000 centrifuges by late 2006 and then increase the program to 54,000 centrifuges. Iranian officials say that would produce enough enriched uranium to fuel a 1,000-megawatt reactor, such as that being built by Russia and nearing completion at Bushehr.
Experts estimate Iran would need only 1,500 centrifuges to produce a nuclear weapon.
Whatever the reality, in the Middle East more than most parts of the globe, perceptions trump reality. If the Iranians believe they are now secure from an American strike, and their behavior suggests they are finding more and more comfort in their current posture, they will escalate their rhetoric and their provocations as time goes on and they move closer to their goal. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to be confident that the West has been adequately cowed:
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday warned Europe against backing proposed UN measures against its nuclear program, saying Iran would respond by downgrading relations with the EU.
Iran is concerned about moves at the UN Security Council to penalize it for refusing to cease uranium enrichment, a process that produces the material for nuclear reactors or bombs. The Europe Union has been supporting the United States in pushing for tougher UN penalties than Russia and China would like to see.
Between the unrest in Lebanon, a slow motion coup by Hezbollah, the increasing pace of the arms race in Gaza, and Iran's ongoing aggressive and anti-Semitic posture, stasis in the American policy in the Middle East would be most unfortunate. The only thing worse than stasis would be our surrender.
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